Sale #1 is missing a couple of items

If I didn't miscount, ~11 extra keys in sweets were added in sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055721127#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

You closed the Naggen suggestion, but you could resuggest it at 84-90. It's fair to ignore the B/O of 60 given that it sold quickly.

So sale 1 should be somewhere around 285.

Another sale: Blizzardy HWNN (35) + Steaming Gatsby (outdated at 12.5) + SGG Flippin' (64) + Steaming OMF (mini at 35) + MW Skullcracker (38) + Mallard Voodoo (mini at 49) + PKS Aussie Medigun (~33) + PKS Aussie Blutsauger (~8)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1496361600/1496448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335680035#!/compare/1496361600/1496448000

https://backpack.tf/item/4504825119

https://backpack.tf/item/5260647411

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The Old Man Frost was bought for $85.94 on SCM (~35 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335680035#!/compare/1492992000/1493337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054758757#!/compare/1492905600/1492992000

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Old%20Man%20Frost

The Voodoo was bought for ~49 keys in australiums

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155359334#!/compare/1495497600/1495670400

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So this sale is around ~275.

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208062409#!/compare/1496361600/1496448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335680035#!/compare/1496361600/1496448000

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208062409#!/compare/1498176000/1498262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112099979#!/compare/1498176000/1498262400

So there are sales for 275-285. Lucky you, the price you suggested is exactly the median.