Sale 1:

Sold for Spectral Swirl I See You (15.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29195740 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065049657#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061634071#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600

X = 16

Keys were used to purchase the taunt here:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033370726#!/compare/1495324800/1495497600

then the taunt was traded away for the hat.

Taunt history:

http://backpack.tf/item/2927431125

Sale 2: (bot sale)

Sold for 14 keys in ~20 days (buyer’s compare link)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1491523200/1491609600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225715416#!/compare/1491264000/1491609600

X = 14

Sale 3:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Dragonborn Helmet (17.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29182661 - B/O of 14

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092471230#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065049657#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600

X = 14 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 4: (bot sale)

Quicksold for 13 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382034007#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092471230#!/compare/1494633600/1494892800

X = 13

Regarding the dragonborn:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5929d7e90e2cad6132759089

Sale 2 is incorrect, but it shouldn’t matter as it wasn’t used to set a low or high-end.

Sales at:

13

14 (2x)

16

No current sellers.

Sale at 13 quicksold, and there are buyers at/higher than 13:

http://i.imgur.com/wauYKL2.png excluding 13.

Going with 14-16.