Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.08

Alright thanks, never knew about this site because it wasn't at the guideline for making suggestions :P Seems like the average price is mostly at $0.08.

Refined metal suggestions cannot be considered the same way as any other suggestion. Because the dollar value on every time is based on this, it's all the more reason to consider very carefully the difference between the intrinsic value on an item and what it gets bought and sold for. It's most important here to do our best to identify the intrinsic value. What do I mean by that? Let's consider a few different things.

(1) The vast majority of cash transactions happen in keys which trade at 1.80-1.90 USD, putting refined solidly around 0.06 USD. The difference isn't a small one. Refined moves very slowly. It's easily possible to move thousands of keys at 1.90 per key before moving even a few hundred refined at 0.08 per ref. When considering the intrinsic dollar value of all items, you have to keep these values in consideration - that the intrinsic refined value of all items is around 0.06 USD per ref.

(2) Because refined moves so slowly, it's just not worth it from a time and energy perspective for highly reputable people to trade in refined. Refined moves most commonly on highly reputable sites. People are willing to pay more for the convenience and added security. This additional value added is not part of the intrinsic value of the item itself and it certainly is not a value that gets transferred to all other items in the tf2 community, even keys.

Yes, it would be best if we could base dollar values off keys, but that's just not possible with the way the website is hard-coded. So we have to work with what we have to give our best possible estimate of intrinsic value here. Your seller at 0.08 USD admitted on previous suggestions that she only sells in small quantities, and if you look at her recent backpack compares you can see how little she actually sells.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1499126400/1499558400 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1499040000/1499126400 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1498867200/1499040000 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1498435200/1498867200 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1498262400/1498435200 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1497484800/1498262400 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1497312000/1497484800 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1497139200/1497312000 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1497052800/1497139200 = nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095808451#!/compare/1496880000/1497052800 = ~20 ref

You have to go back a month or more to find ANY sales.

We have a change in mind to help make refined suggestions, and the dollar prices for the site on which they are based, more accurate, and an announcement will be made exploring the details of that soon.

You need way more price sells than just 10.

And what might price sells refer to? If those refer to solds, then no, there are actually 25 in that single transaction. And the seller has also stated that there are much more, but she cannot provide them without the permission of the buyer.

ninjaedit: Also refined metal has a small market (refined to real money), please provide counter proof if you would like to criticise

nope

A pricesuggestion for Refined that isnt complete shit? Wait, what! Remindes me of the Rise of the Aussies

ref raising :O

OMG Market going back to "Normal" again, maybe buds will be 20 keys and keys 8 ref now again! PRAY XD (JK)

*UPVOTE*

It's a good suggestion, but off-topic, it will unfortunately never go back to the way it was, because refined demand is too low and supply to high. In the ripe year of 2013 where everything was smooth, there was only 700k refined. Today there is around 4.5mil. I wish it can go back :(

Nah, it really shouldnt go back, it is already stable atm ^^

We just need to pray that Valve will finally install a working refined sink to reduce the ref. Maybe by making a ref betting system where you can bet on competitive mode matches?

Despite the fact that this is off-topic, gambling wouldn't be a way to lower the amount of ref in existence/be a metal sink.

Wow, I really forgot to mention what would make it a ref sink- I wish I could downvote myself. The reason I brought it up was to suggest making a ref betting system WHICH TAKES REF OUT OF THE TOTAL PEOPLE BET to reduce refined in the market total. Let's say 10 people bet 5 refined, five refined per person in a five vs five. There would be a twenty percent cut of total refined, reducing the total ref to 40. The winners walk away with a three refined profit, as 40/5=8, but the TOTAL refined is reduced. Also you'd be betting on your own skills, betting to enter a match with others, not betting on a six vs six you have to part of. Sorry about the confusion, and sorry for diverting the topic, but it was based on the question of how do we get the price of refined down, and this was only a mere suggestion. Once again, this was all my fault, and I am sorry.

I remember the good old days haha. Back then buds were worth something, now anyone can have a pair if they want to.

Back in my day, keys were 2.66 ref, buds were 26 keys and a bills was 8.

I know, ive lived that too..

Having refined go back to what it was years ago would be nearly impossible, but you know, this is a step in the right direction. Probably. :D

This sounds about correct, not only would leave refined metal at a set price, but also would be a push encouraging value

Extra proof http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25674193 ( I'm buying @ .085 )

Cool, so I can sell my keys for refined and get essentially $2.45 out of you for a keys worth of ref. Thanks for free profit.

Math is fun

how am i just seeing this now

Well, im even more surprised about it, than you, as i actively vote every day and saw it even later, than you did :'D

So if I'm understanding this correctly, your proof that 0.08 is the most common trade point for refined is based on one seller at 0.08? Is that correct?

Yes, and also the person who's buying it for $0.085 I guess. If this is insufficient you can tell me, and I will probably try to find more. I can't find any more sellers at $0.08, and the ones above $0.08 don't have any sales anyway... only looked through tf2outpost and marketplace.tf though, I don't know of other sites.

Edit: there aren't many sellers on outpost in the first place :/

Yeah, I understand the issue. It makes refined suggestions probably the hardest suggestion to make. It's also why these suggestions usually get left up for a while - to wait for more data. Waiting for 7 days gave us the buyer. Maybe waiting a bit more will give us more to go off.

It seems like RoyalCake (seller at $0.095) is banned on steamrep. Sorry for not checking earlier.

He is not. You probably came across an imposter.

Woops. Well just double checked and he still has no sales. Thanks again :D You've been a great help.

Sells for 0.10$ on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal

So I recommend to include 0.10$ in the range

Marketplace isn't very valid as I found out becos they take a commission, so basically the seller only gets $0.09, and speaking of which, I tried to include $0.09 in my range but I'm not sure why it was shut down by some people so... rip

The thing with refined on marketplace is that only a very small handful of people are even allowed to sell refined there, and they have a bit of an agreement not to undercut each other, or else the price would crash very rapidly. It's not really a fair indicator of the market.

Alright thanks for clearing that up :)

Mann co key price raises > Refined price must drop because there are more ref and everyone can afford it more easily so its less valuable.. just like money currency, the more there is, the less its valuable, thats why rock is free and diamonds are expensive

Remember when key was 20 ref and refined price was 12 cents? Remember when mann co key was 5 ref and one refined was equal to 4 ref today and it was 40 cents?

Thats why Alaska was bough for 7,2 milion dollars in 1867 year and today that price is equal to 123 milion US dollars

Sadly, the refined market doesn't show this.

Because it is outdated price.. who even purchases refined from there? And who buys hats from marketplace.tf

With all of kalani's 0.08 sales, and everyone else's (LeonSK, Royalcake, Erupo) very few/no sales, then I think 0.08 is a good price, the buyers seem to be decent too

I'd agree with you unless OPskins is valid proof

There's many $0.07 sales on this site

If it is valid proof, and there actually are that many sales, than 0.07-0.08 is good. I'm still confused on whether 3rd party sites that deal with cash are valid proof on suggestions, but i guess we'll see how it goes.

this has been going on for how long?

so how do keys and metal rise at the same time unless this bp.tf is fake? just something to think about

DOWNVOTE

In my opinion, refined metal must worth $0.07, because the keys and mann co. tickets began to go up but earbuds began to cheapen. I think that this is not a coincidence. Everybody knows that keys have fixed price about $1.95 - $2.05 but they worth $2.24 on bp.tf (this isn't correctly!!!)

I have found 1 seller at $0.065 for ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29259918 - 3 days

Er I don't need ur opinion I just needed the counter proof. However, I have a buyer at 0.08 so he could have easily sold all his refined to him. Also, refined market is independent of keys and tickets so it doesn't matter what their price is, unless rules have changed.

P.S. your seller has a pretty young trade up which means his price may change at anytime