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Infernal Flames Taunt: Oblooderated
Finally got one of these…
New price: 25-28 keys
[proof below]
SALE #1 = not using
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174470406#!/compare/1494028800/1494115200
Sold along 1 key for a Blizzardy Storm Vintage Merryweather. Better used there.
SALE #2 = invalid
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1495238400/1495324800
Either bulk or high. Involved that Screaming Tiger Taunt: Oblooderated.
SALE #3 = invalid
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120039055#!/compare/1492646400/1492732800
???
SALE #4 = 25 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120039055#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400
Sold for 25 keys.
SALE #5 = 23 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067575136#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200
http://imgur.com/a/VRaDQ - Credits to Cashew!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28858022 - B/O 23 keys.
Sold for a Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: Oblooderated + 5 keys. Should be able to cap. 2 months outdated so might as well exclude since we got 2 other sales here.
SALE #6 = invalid
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094428372#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000
Bulk.
SALE #7 = 20 keys / invalid
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050090433#!/compare/1491091200/1491350400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094428372#!/compare/1491091200/1491264000
Sold for 20 keys. Older than 2 months so excluding.
SALE #8 = 28 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1496880000/1497139200
Sold for a Nuts n’ Bolts Neckwear Headwear (17) + Nuts n’ Bolts Bloke’s Bucket Hat (9) + 2 keys = 28 keys. Not being used there to confirm a range so fine to use here. His B/O was 30 keys. Shouldn’t cap. Bloke is indate.
Mini for the Nuts n’ Bolts Neckwear Headwear = 17 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1495411200/1495584000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150082447#!/compare/1495497600/1495584000
http://i.imgur.com/MPs2Rqq.png
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29207238#latest - B/O 17 keys
Sold for a Haunted Ghosts Snaggletooth. Went outdated a few days ago, should still be able to cap at 17 keys.
SUMMARY
Sales: 23 / 25 / 28 keys
Sellers: -
Going with 25-28 keys.
Sale 2 is not bulk or high.
https://vgy.me/3XY5xi.png
IF Oblooterated + 23 pure -> Screaming Oblooterated (45)
That'd be a sale at 22.
With 2 other sales at 20 and 23, I think 28 could possibly be an outlier as well.
Sale 2 is bulky. It is just under half.
"A note about complex sales
A hat should not be priced using a sale in which it represents less than 50% of the trade value."
While 48.88% is technically less than 50%, I would not call the sale complex, not even a little bit.
Regardless, if it is bulk or not, I feel that sale 2 would support sale 5.
Yeah I don't think i'm buying the raise here; sure the lower sales can be considered outdated but when there's this many sales that support the ~20 range I don't feel like it's right to exclude it. In fact I'd even go as far as to say that 28 is an outlier here.
More sales:
Sold for $37 in Marketplace(~18 Keys using 2.05 value)
https://marketplace.tf/items/1120;5;u3015
Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Whoopee Cap(Outdated at 24 Keys, Sellers at 17)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000247762#!/compare/1487721600/1489622400
Old sale either way, but does not support your high end.
So we have sales at ~17(Outdated), 18, ~18, 20(old-ish), ~22(bulk), 23(argueably not old, turned 2 months old today), 25 and 28. There's just way too many sales here to not consider 28 an outlier here. If any sort of range is going to work for this, it would be 18-25(which conveniently enough uses the only two pure sales, unless you want to count 20, the old sale).
18-25 will be better here, resuggest at that.