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~26 keys
i.flames
Unusual Taunt: Oblooterated Infernal Flames
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Infernal Flames Taunt: Oblooderated

Finally got one of these…


New price: 25-28 keys

[proof below]


SALE #1 = not using


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174470406#!/compare/1494028800/1494115200

Sold along 1 key for a Blizzardy Storm Vintage Merryweather. Better used there.


SALE #2 = invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1495238400/1495324800

Either bulk or high. Involved that Screaming Tiger Taunt: Oblooderated.


SALE #3 = invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120039055#!/compare/1492646400/1492732800

???


SALE #4 = 25 keys


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120039055#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400

Sold for 25 keys.


SALE #5 = 23 keys


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067575136#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

http://imgur.com/a/VRaDQ - Credits to Cashew!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28858022 - B/O 23 keys.

Sold for a Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: Oblooderated + 5 keys. Should be able to cap. 2 months outdated so might as well exclude since we got 2 other sales here.


SALE #6 = invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094428372#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000

Bulk.


SALE #7 = 20 keys / invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050090433#!/compare/1491091200/1491350400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094428372#!/compare/1491091200/1491264000

Sold for 20 keys. Older than 2 months so excluding.


SALE #8 = 28 keys


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1496880000/1497139200

Sold for a Nuts n’ Bolts Neckwear Headwear (17) + Nuts n’ Bolts Bloke’s Bucket Hat (9) + 2 keys = 28 keys. Not being used there to confirm a range so fine to use here. His B/O was 30 keys. Shouldn’t cap. Bloke is indate.


Mini for the Nuts n’ Bolts Neckwear Headwear = 17 keys


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1495411200/1495584000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150082447#!/compare/1495497600/1495584000

http://i.imgur.com/MPs2Rqq.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29207238#latest - B/O 17 keys

Sold for a Haunted Ghosts Snaggletooth. Went outdated a few days ago, should still be able to cap at 17 keys.


SUMMARY

Sales: 23 / 25 / 28 keys

Sellers: -


Going with 25-28 keys.

    Sale 2 is not bulk or high.

    https://vgy.me/3XY5xi.png


    IF Oblooterated + 23 pure -> Screaming Oblooterated (45)

    That'd be a sale at 22.


    With 2 other sales at 20 and 23, I think 28 could possibly be an outlier as well.

      Sale 2 is bulky. It is just under half.

        "A note about complex sales

        A hat should not be priced using a sale in which it represents less than 50% of the trade value."


        While 48.88% is technically less than 50%, I would not call the sale complex, not even a little bit.


        Regardless, if it is bulk or not, I feel that sale 2 would support sale 5.

    Yeah I don't think i'm buying the raise here; sure the lower sales can be considered outdated but when there's this many sales that support the ~20 range I don't feel like it's right to exclude it. In fact I'd even go as far as to say that 28 is an outlier here.


    More sales:


    Sold for $37 in Marketplace(~18 Keys using 2.05 value)

    https://marketplace.tf/items/1120;5;u3015


    Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Whoopee Cap(Outdated at 24 Keys, Sellers at 17)

    http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000247762#!/compare/1487721600/1489622400

    Old sale either way, but does not support your high end.


    So we have sales at ~17(Outdated), 18, ~18, 20(old-ish), ~22(bulk), 23(argueably not old, turned 2 months old today), 25 and 28. There's just way too many sales here to not consider 28 an outlier here. If any sort of range is going to work for this, it would be 18-25(which conveniently enough uses the only two pure sales, unless you want to count 20, the old sale).


    18-25 will be better here, resuggest at that.