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Price seems high. All sellers ask 35 keys. Let's see what the sales say
http://i.imgur.com/NiT1RAY.png
Sale 1: 30 keys pure
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030058573#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400
Sale 2: Untraceable
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147463440#!/compare/1493078400/1493164800
Sale 3: Sold together with 17 keys pure + Strange Mecha-Medes + ~8 keys in items for Cloud 9 Salty Dog (54.5) --> 29.5; rounding to 30 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051452078#!/compare/1494979200/1495065600
(The sale was NOT used to price the Salty Dog so I think this is fine)
Sale 4: Untraceable; IDs don't match
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212072039#!/compare/1493337600/1493510400
Sale 5: Bulk
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038391383#!/compare/1494374400/1494460800
Sale 6: Sold for Circling Heart A Hat to Kill For + 6 keys in items; excluding
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112414874#!/compare/1494288000/1494374400
Was used to price Hat to Kill for: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5915eca90e2cad6455500bd8
Sale 7: Sold for Circling Peace Sign Wraith Wrap
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123151330#!/compare/1495065600/1495152000
B/O was 41: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29178112
Should be used to update Wrath Wrap.
Sale 8: Sold together with 5 keys for Flaming Lantern Sergeant's Drill Hat (53) --> 53 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090147535#!/compare/1496016000/1496102400
Mini Drill hat: Sold together with 10.5 keys for Smoking Hong Kong Cone (68) --> 58
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321968821#!/compare/1496102400/1496188800
Sale 9: Bulk for Disco Beat Down Crone's Dome
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090147535#!/compare/1495324800/1495411200
Sale 10: Sold for Eerie Orbiting Fire Hound Dog
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961172123#!/compare/1496620800/1496707200
Eerie Orbiting Fire Hound Dog is outdated by 5 years. Sale should be used to price the hat.
Sale 11: Sold together for Bubbling Well-Rounded Rifleman & 6 keys pure + ~1 keys in items
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071789057#!/compare/1492387200/1492473600
Has few sales so should be used to price the Rifleman instead
Sale 12: 28 keys pure; took long time to sell so no QS
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219821359#!/compare/1492300800/1492387200
Sale 13: Sold together with 4 keys for Neutron Star Neckwear Headwear (34) --> 30 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030050182#!/compare/1494374400/1494460800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071789057#!/compare/1494115200/1494460800
Sale 14: 26 keys pure; was QS --> excluding
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058439196#!/compare/1496361600/1496448000
Sale 15: 27 keys pure; sold within 4 days
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114635132#!/compare/1497139200/1497225600
Sales at: 27, 28, 30 30, 30, 53. Calling 53 an outlier. 27 might be QS.
Suggesting range from 28-30
Thoughts?
I remember seeing the classified listing for the 28 keys pure. He said "30% off!" in the notes. The owner had not bumped it for several days, which is probably why it took so long to sell.
Judging from the listing notes, it seems like Slip(the seller of the listing I noticed) intended to quicksell the hat but was offline so he was unable to respond to the offers he had received.
Sorry that I can't provide a screenshot but I didn't know that the hat would be repriced.
All other sales, except for sale 8, indicate a lower price though than it currently has. So this hats needs to be repriced.
Yes but I'm not sure if 28 should be included in the range, because the owner obviously intended to quicksell but couldn't because he was inactive.
Sale 3 was absolutely used to price the Salty Dog. It set the high end, and cannot be used here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/593b129f0e2cad746553de57
Sale 1 was sold the same day it was listed for 30, but was up for a while at 37 before that: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28884675
28 was left unbumped as mentioned in the comments, and ultimately sold to a bot's buy order, not valid here. Omitting 28.
Sale #15 has the wrong link, but there are buyers for 27 on classifieds so it doesn't matter, it's invalid. Omitting 27.
Drill mini for sale 8 is way too high. A better one: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002#!/compare/1495756800/1495843200 - ~41 keys worth of stuff, so 41 - 5 = 36, should be included
Additional sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030050182#!/compare/1494547200/1494633600 - Scatter + 2 pure, ~52, countered by sellers/probably would have been B/O capped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29186718 - B/O 35
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112279227#!/compare/1497657600/1497744000 - KaW Muffs + ~2 keys of sweets, ~34
Muffs mini: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112279227#!/compare/1497916800/1498003200 + https://backpack.tf/item/5375295890, ~32, should be included
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1493942400/1494028800 - 37 pure, sellers for less but pure + within the past 2 months, should be included
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069559160#!/compare/1494460800/1494547200 - 30 pure (your own sale, took a day, why didn't you include this?)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044949718#!/compare/1496016000/1496361600 - With Aussie BB for Slumber Muffs, ~45 but Muffs look high judging by sellers, better used there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216561389#!/compare/1493337600/1493424000 - Searing Juju, unknown B/O, countered by sellers/probably better used on the Juju which will be outdated soon
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123151330#!/compare/1494547200/1494633600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049267666#!/compare/1494460800/1494633600 - Showstopper I See You + 3 pure and 2 keys of sweets, ~36, Taunt was updated right after this sale occurred so price should be reliable here, should be included
Sales: 30 (pure/1 day total), 30 (pure/1 day after re-listing), 30 (Neckwear), 34 (Muffs), 36 (Sergeant), 36 (Taunt + sweets) 37 (pure), 45 (Muffs, better used there) 45 (Juju, unknown B/O), 52 (Scatter, unknown B/O). Mature sellers for 34/35. It is obviously pretty easy to sell this for 30 pure and usually sells fast, but it's also a common trading point. No reason to omit 34, and 36/37 as well should be included as there are several sales at that value and 37 is full pure. Average of 33.5 still comes out below the current sellers, which is good. Other sales from your original proof at 27, 28, and 30 are invalid but support a drop generally speaking, and 45/52 are either too high here or better used for the other hats involved but support the inclusion of the higher sales. Please re-suggest at 30-37.