Sale 1:

Sold for Searing Plasma Pyro’s Boron Beanie (19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28883471 - B/O of 20

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198250466306#!/compare/1492560000/1492732800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243182518#!/compare/1492560000/1492732800

X = 19

Sale 2:

Sold with ~1 key in crates/items for Spec. KS Aussie FaN (10) + ~5 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108035080#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198250466306#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

X = 14

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151005351#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

X = 12

Sale 4:

Sold for 11 keys + 16 ref (>0.5) in ~5-6 days

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174084635#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

X = 12

Sale 5:

Sold for 10 keys + >0.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29200751 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1495756800/1495929600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113392265#!/compare/1495324800/1495929600

X = 11

Sale 6:

Sold for Electric Hat Protector Head Full of Hot Air (In-date at 15.5, sellers at ~13)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28869065 - B/O of 11

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114959212#!/compare/1491955200/1492041600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170374989#!/compare/1491955200/1492041600

X = 11 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 7:

Sold in ~1-3 days for 11 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332812722#!/compare/1492905600/1493164800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043982289#!/compare/1492905600/1493078400

X = 11

Sale 8:

Sold for 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28857442 - B/O of 12

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101293799#!/compare/1492300800/1492387200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152386086#!/compare/1440140400/1492387200

X = 11

Sale 9:

Sold for Smoking Buckaroo’s Hat + ~1 key in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29213256 - B/O of 11

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153845654#!/compare/1496448000/1496534400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196723771#!/compare/1490400000/1496534400

Larrikin: http://backpack.tf/item/3531595449

Items: http://backpack.tf/item/4761555905

http://backpack.tf/item/349246447

Should easily cap at the B/O, Buckaroo’s has buyers at ~9.7 keys.

X = 11 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 10:

Sold in ~1-2 days for 10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29204746 - B/O of 11

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095407289#!/compare/1496016000/1496102400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085235039#!/compare/1496016000/1496102400

X = 10

Sale 11:

Sold for Pro. KS Gold Botkiller MK.I (~8.5) + ~1.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28802475 - B/O of 12

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163369275#!/compare/1490659200/1490745600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081720166#!/compare/1490659200/1490745600

X = 10

Sale 12:

Sold for 10 keys + 13 ref (<0.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28867810 - B/O of 11

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122604075#!/compare/1492214400/1492473600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065981649#!/compare/1492387200/1492473600

X = 10

Sale 13:

Sold with cheap cosmetic for 10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29179579 - B/O of ~10.5

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065981649#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800

X = 10

Sale 14:

Sold for 9 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063562131#!/compare/1490659200/1491091200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077984810#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

X = 9

Sale 15:

Sold for 9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28858419 – B/O of 11

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077984810#!/compare/1491350400/1491436800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114959212#!/compare/1491350400/1491436800

X = 9

Sale 16:

Quicksold with <0.5 keys in items for 9 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108696726#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245131174#!/compare/1492387200/1492560000

X = 9

Sale 17:

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Larrikin Robin

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081720166#!/compare/1491091200/1491177600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220585019#!/compare/1491004800/1491177600

Can be used to update the Blizzardy Larrikin.

Sale 18:

Bulk for pure?

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144346135#!/compare/1496966400/1497052800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049149130#!/compare/1496707200/1497052800

Sellers:

11 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/xfwOhpL.png - 1 day

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198049149130

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29224492

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28874167 - 1 month

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:oEgxGogOrR8J:www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28874167+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au – was probably not lowered

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198015281106

12 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29205324 - 1 week

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198085235039

13 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/b77iEtn.png - ~1 day

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198026129220

http://i.imgur.com/KSFJyCj.png - 29 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198090956917

16 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/9TU2nIv.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198243182518

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29182251 - 3 weeks

Sales at:

9 (3x)

10 (4x)

11 (5x)

12 (2x)

14

19

Buyer at ~9.5 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/9uVkcBt.png

Excluding 9

19 is an obvious outlier. Excluding 19.

14 is most likely an outlier also. It would definitely be lower if we could identify the B/O, and there are many sellers, some of which are a couple months old, for cheaper. Excluding 14.

Some of the sales at 10 and 11 may have sold in a short-ish amount of time, but they are way too frequent to be ignored. Keeping 10 and 11 in the range.

Going with 10-12.