Sale 1:

Sold for Green Confetti Ze Goggles (Mini at 16 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28837903 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284080404#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101293799#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

X = 15 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold with 14 ref (~0.5) for Purple Confetti Miami Nights Cyborg Stunt Helm (Mini at 10.5 below) + 3 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296168912#!/compare/1494288000/1494374400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153324766#!/compare/1494288000/1494374400

X = 13

Sale 3:

Sold for Smoking Larrikin (Mini at 11 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28839603 - B/O of 14

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101293799#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195483499#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

X = 11

Sale 4:

Sold with 11 keys for Aces High Master’s Yellow Belt

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195483499#!/compare/1496793600/1496880000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027694776#!/compare/1496620800/1496880000

Should be used on the belt.

Smoking Larrikin Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/593eaeed0e2cad53f919bcda

Miami Nights Cyborg Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/593ec3080e2cad371a4a16f5

Green Confetti Ze Goggles Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/593ec916e3387747f865406f

Sellers:

13 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/8RM0o0c.png - 4 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198304138933

http://i.imgur.com/8ey3DSb.png - 1 day

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198027694776

http://i.imgur.com/xzz7zn6.png - 6 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198004236703

15 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/wGTlIpf.png - 3 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198066195760

Sales at:

11

13

15

11 seems pretty low, especially with R+ubi paying more than 11 for it:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zOs-0OfVjLsNYAmMa8_tvi2tA9Rrnok7nEUqDOQuls0/edit#gid=0

http://i.imgur.com/13iulNJ.png

Excluding 11.

Multiple sellers at lower than 15, as well as the 3 month unsold at 15 shows that 15 should not be in the range. Excluding 15.

Going with 13 flat.