Sale 1:

Sold for Stormy Defiant Spartan (16) + cheap skin

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144819017#!/compare/1490400000/1490486400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974364849#!/compare/1490400000/1490486400

X = 16

Sale 2:

Sold with 2 ref for 13 keys (Buyer’s compare link, one key doesn’t match)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28900566 - B/O of ~12.9, re-listed multiple times

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061529320#!/compare/1493337600/1493424000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996904846#!/compare/1493164800/1493424000

X = 13

Sale 3:

Sold for Spec. KS Aussie FaN (10) + 2 keys + >0.5 keys in metal in about a day

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974364849#!/compare/1490400000/1490486400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169762923#!/compare/1490400000/1490486400

X = 13

Sale 4:

Sold for a lot of items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138453147#!/compare/1495411200/1496016000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084792603#!/compare/1495929600/1496016000

Best not to try and get an exact figure from this sale.

Sellers:

14 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/vFphwFH.png - recently re-listed from a higher price

https://backpack.tf/u/76561198062425416

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29174282 - 1 month, B/O of 16 here

http://i.imgur.com/ISEVfkm.png - 11 days

https://backpack.tf/u/76561198002186909

16 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/uiPdZ5m.png - 16 days

https://backpack.tf/u/76561198050933686

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29219686

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28872878 - 2 months

Sales at:

13 (2x)

16

Normally, in this situation, I would exclude the sale at 16, due to it being an outlier. However, given that one of the sales at 13 sold really quick, and the sale at 16 also sold pretty quick, I’ll be keeping 16 in the range.

Going with 13-16.