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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128876846#!/compare/1493424000/1493510400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171021285#!/compare/1493424000/1493510400
46 in aussies
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068064085#!/compare/1493769600/1493856000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298210084#!/compare/1493769600/1493856000
Harvest Moon Lord Cockswain's Pith Helmet
using for helmet
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264714079#!/compare/1496966400/1497139200
Orbiting Fire Larrikin Robin(15) + 2 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253931705#!/compare/1496793600/1497398400
with 5 sweets and key for Energy Orb Professional Killstreak Lightning Rod Shotgun (Minimal Wear)(51)
45
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163565717#!/compare/1497744000/1497830400
with 3 keys for 56 in aussies
53
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132066578#!/compare/1491177600/1491955200
Vivid Plasma Ye Olde Baker Boy(outdated at 32, sellers for 28)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046027406#!/compare/1497225600/1497312000
bulk
https://marketplace.tf/items/451;5;u61
110$ = 52 keys
46-53
Calling this close enough because of the Shotgun sale, which should have set the low end, but the sale you actually used (the first sale) is wrongly valued - always use the value of items from as close to the the time of the sale as possible, which should make that sale closer to 49. Still falls in range.