Suggestion: Smoking Le Party Phantom at 17–21 keys

Sale 14) Max's Severed Head + Strange Professional Killstreak Dead Reckoner Revolver (Factory New) + Disco Beat Down Toy Soldier → Smoking Le Party Phantom + Burning Flames Counterfeit Billycock

17.75 + 7 + 45 = Smoking Le Party Phantom + 57.5

Smoking Le Party Phantom = 12.25 (Low, Not using)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977853499#!/compare/1494201600/1494288000

Sale 15) Smoking Le Party Phantom + Circling Heart A Hat to Kill For + 7 keys in items + 1 key → Isotope Professional Killstreak Night Owl Sniper Rifle (Well-Worn)

Smoking Le Party Phantom + 29.5 + 7 + 1 = 53

Smoking Le Party Phantom = 15.5 (Low, Not Using)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190078474#!/compare/1495152000/1495324800

Sale 16) Dead Presidents Pyromancer's Mask → Smoking Le Party Phantom + Collector's Ambassador + 13 keys in items

37 = Smoking Le Party Phantom + 7 + 13

Smoking Le Party Phantom = 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052267968#!/compare/1497484800/1497571200

Sale 17) 18 keys 14 ref → Smoking Le Party Phantom

Smoking Le Party Phantom = 18.5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052267968#!/compare/1498089600/1498176000

Usable Sales @⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀Unusable Sales

25.5⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀20

24 ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀18 (x2)

21.5 ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀23

---------- ↑ Outliers

18.5

18

17 (x2)

---------- ↓ Quicksells

16.1

15.5

15.1

12.25

Going with 17-21 as the range ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

nice

why is 22 an outlier? it's only 1 key away from 21

I found that most of the sales were concentrated towards the lower end on of the spectrum. I didn't find it worth including 22, as the range would be fairly large for a lower tier hat, and there is not very much evidence to include it anyways. I will re-suggest if enough people/ a mod think I should put it in the range.

Duped sales for hats below 30 keys are considered equivalent to clean, meaning sales 6 and 7 are valid.

Sale 8 would be valid too, except that it is the same as sale 6.

Bulky sales where the hat involved isn't the most significant item on its side of the trade are invalid, meaning 14, 15, and 16 are invalid.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29194773 - B/O was 20 in sale #10, so that sale is capped at 20. It winds up being good that you left 22 out of the range, because it wouldn't have been supported

Usable sales are 17 (pure), 18 (pure), 18.5 (pure), 18.5, 20, & 21 (aussie). Sellers counter 20 & 21, but keeping them in the range is fine considering there are multiple higher sales as well and the sale at ~21 was an Aussie sale, which is close to pure.

All in all this range works out well enough.