Sale 1:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Mann of Reason (14) + cheap cosmetic (<0.5)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336793881#!/compare/1497312000/1497398400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019209250#!/compare/1497312000/1497398400

X = 14

Sale 2:

Quicksold for 12 keys

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1493856000/1493942400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208327832#!/compare/1493856000/1494028800

X = 12

Sale 3:

Sold for 11 keys + 15 ref (>0.5) in ~9 days

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1498089600/1498176000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054601655#!/compare/1498176000/1498262400

X = 12

Sale 4:

Sold for 11 keys? in ~7 days

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1496275200/1496361600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336793881#!/compare/1496188800/1496361600

X = 11?

Sales at:

11?

12 (2x)

14

The hat quicksold once for 12, but sold twice for lower than 12, both times taking about a week to sell. 12 should not be excluded.

Sales 3 and 4 are from the same bot/seller. Usually, you’d expect the bot to sell for the same price, and gradually lower the price over time. Given that the sale at 11 sold quicker than sale at 12, I’m not confident that the sale at 11 was actually 11 keys. I believe there was some ref involved that we cannot sell. Excluding 11.

Going with 12-14.