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Getting some early old hats in ;)
SALES:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136883260#!/compare/1497744000/1498089600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120382814#!/compare/1497830400/1498089600
Sold for PE Neckwear (205) + Blizzardy BoA (Outdated at 120, mini at 88)
= 293 (Rounding to 295)
BoA mini:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136883260#!/compare/1498176000/1498348800
~76
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100139490#!/compare/1497571200/1497657600
11 day old seller at 80 on the taunt
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068127299#!/compare/1498348800/1498435200
~100
Taking 76-100.
Only recent clean sale.
Let it ride.
Current seller at $400 on marketplace. https://marketplace.tf/items/538;5;u16/Vivid%20Plasma%20Killer%20Exclusive
Don't know how long it's been there though.
Backpack history would suggest it's been there less than 3 days.
For an item of this value it would need to be unsold for that much in cash for a good couple of months before it troubled this suggestion, but I appreciate it.
Months? Can you show me the rule that says that?
https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
https://prnt.sc/fsm40v
It specifies "at least a month" for a hat of this value, and it's generally accepted that cash values must be up longer than regular pure B/Os as marketplace has lower exposure and it takes longer for people to get cash than keys in regards to TF2. So yeah, a "couple of months."
Ah, there it is, hidden in a massive block of text. 25 keys a week is pretty savage when things tend to sell in minutes if they're actually a good deal, regardless of price.
That's just for dropping with B/Os of course - if an item has a pure b/o the sale caps at that regardless. But cash is a little different, it can ONLY sell for its b/o or not sell at all. And we tend to overlook cash sales as being low, unless it was listed for a good while, as it takes people time to get cash together.
See I have an issue with that mentality that cash takes time to get together. I get that not everyone in the trading community is old enough to have a real job, but if you do, cash is not hard to get at all. If I knew for sure that I could resell that $400 hat for 295 keys I'd buy it in an instant, but even at that my profits are small and I have no guarantee it'll even sell at 295, especially if my purchase gets used to price the item which certainly has happened.
I also think marketplace is exposing the market a bit, people are far less willing to actually put back in cash they can withdraw, vs trading hats for other hats that have no actual value until that cash transaction happens. You might have traded that 400 key hat for another 400 key hat, but who's going to pay $800 real life dollars for it? (edit: on top of how marketplace records /every/ sale with effect and hat together, unlike SCM where all effects are lumped into one graph)
But that's just my opinions vs moderator opinions. I'm seeing a lot of these 200+ key hats dropping hard because no one wants to pay pure for them.
The marketplace seller seems to alter his price a lot (unless it was a different seller; in that case I cannot find it).
The strange one is some 40 keys more than this, and the current mp listing is well below current on this.
Accepting this as its clearly better than current