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Blizzardy Storm Brain Bucket (12-13):
EVENT SUGGESTION
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251220724#!/compare/1496534400/1496620800
Sold for 12 pure.
https://backpack.tf/item/3750966001
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063658197#!/compare/1496016000/1496102400
Quicksold for 11 pure.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1497484800/1497571200
Sold for OF Sergeant (Open suggestion at 16)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377476473#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
Sold for 9 pure + sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195269186#!/compare/1495584000/1495670400
Sold for G.Fetti Gym Rat (10)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259128870#!/compare/1495411200/1495584000
Sold for 13 pure.
Sellers up to ~11.33, cutting out anything lower than that.
However due to the vast amount of low sales, and a two-month unsold at 15, calling 16 an outlier.
Let it ride.
Here's the other side of sale 2, some ref was added but it's negligible: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251220724#!/compare/1496016000/1496102400
The keys for sale 13 don't match, but it looks like they were bought and then spent on the bucket right after.
-Gym rat sale is wrong, but it's low anyway so w/e: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195269186#!/compare/1495584000/1495670400 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377476473#!/compare/1495584000/1495670400
-OF drill sale is also wrong, looks like 9 pure + buds + .5 keys in sweets (~12 total): https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051965480#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
This still fits your range, this should be okay.