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EVENT SUGGESTION!
Sale 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096719705#!/compare/1494288000/1494460800
Sold with a Clean Bubbling Noble Amassment of Hats (15 keys) for a Clean Neutron Star Lil' Bitey (38 keys) + 2 key in adds
(38 + 2) - 15 = 25
Sale 2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236986302#!/compare/1498953600/1499126400 - Use on Big Country. Supports a raise tho.
25 flat.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150783829#!/compare/1493596800/1493683200 - Aces Buddy + 7, ~18
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28881057 - Had been asking 19 for 2 weeks
^Only a week prior to the Bitey sale.
The Bitey sale is somewhat bulky and skews the value of the Naggen - I wouldn't use a sale like that as sole proof for a suggestion, only if there were other sales to support its value (in relation, the whole hat must be 50% of the trade thing is really meant to decisively exclude sales where it is less than 50%, not as a clearance to use anything where it is more than 50%). The Big Country sale looks more like it would support a refresh tbh - multiple sellers there asking for 40.
I think 18 flat would be best here.