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Team 5
Sale #1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063478666#!/compare/1494115200/1494201600
Sold for Duped C.Moon Lucky Shot (70) + Cyclone Oblooterated (sellers @ 18)
=88 keys
Minis
Duped C.Moon Lucky Shot
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28849174 - unsold @ 70 for 3 months
The seller you're using is a clean seller, and the lucky shot involved is a duped one.
Here's some sales for it:
Sold for 59 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131181397#!/compare/1493424000/1493510400
Sold for 50 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1499472000/1499558400
Valuing the lucky shot at 54.5(round to 55), makes this sale 73 keys in total. Given that the clean unsold you provided is still unsold, that's going to need a B/O drop, so 55 shouldn't be too low here.
73 flat should be better.