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Tesla Coil Pampered Pyro
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1498867200/1498953600
http://imgur.com/a/mgP7h
Sold for 16 keys pure
X= 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065733542#!/compare/1497225600/1497312000
Sold for 13 keys pure
X= 13 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142968328#!/compare/1496534400/1497225600
Sold for a Infernal Flames Taunt: Party Trick(25.5)
X= 26 keys
These are the only 3 recent, 3 month old sales.
Summary
13
16
26
26 seems high compared to the 13 and 16 key sale. Going with a range of 13-16
14 day unsold @ 18 supports that 26 is an outlier.
http://imgur.com/a/oY3Ig
Unsold due to terrible price suggestion scaring off buyers.
New sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/30139;5;u108 - ~18 keys via MP
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121040682#!/compare/1500163200/1501027200 - Quicksold to a 10 key buy order, invalid
https://imgur.com/a/3hbme - Buy order
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29214814 - 13 key seller had listed at 24 for a week before abruptly taking less than half of that, also seems like a quicksell tbh
Sales at 13 (keys/quicksellish), 16 (keys), 18 (Cash), and 26 (taunt), with a mature but poorly bumped seller for 18.
I think 16-18 makes the most sense with what we have to work with.