Only using sales that occurred in the last 2 months

Sale 1:

Sold for Hellish Inferno Schadenfreude (50)

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:nlAMRyrzZB4J:www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29215361+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au – B/O of 50

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054945991#!/compare/1497571200/1497657600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091476211#!/compare/1497571200/1497657600

X = 45 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for Vivid Plasma Sergeant’s Drill Hat (40)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069149238#!/compare/1496361600/1496534400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069535551#!/compare/1496188800/1496448000

X = 40

Sale 3:

Sold with <1 key in items for Haunted Ghosts Harmburg (Suggestion at 37.5)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091476211#!/compare/1497657600/1497744000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116653058#!/compare/1497657600/1497744000

X = 37

Sale 4:

Sold with ~1 key in ref for Duped Aces High KE + 4 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116653058#!/compare/1499299200/1499472000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962488873#!/compare/1499385600/1499472000

Couldn’t get a mini on the KE.

Sale 5:

Bulk for Beams Whoopee + items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962488873#!/compare/1499731200/1499817600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021048583#!/compare/1499731200/1499817600

Sale 6:

Bulk for Green Energy Cold Killer

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182448005#!/compare/1495497600/1495584000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1495497600/1495584000

Haunted Ghosts Harmburg Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/595f8f67cf6c75316c723b9f

Sellers:

40 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/TnD2nWT.png - 1 month

http://i.imgur.com/e4z5wvc.png - 3 days

http://i.imgur.com/EmQOxQj.png - 8 days

Sales at:

37

40

45

45 is an outlier, given the sellers at 40. Excluding 45.

Going with 37-40.