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Edit~ sleeping on it i think its best to have a big range then an outlier until another sale but current owner doesnt look like he will sell in awhile
no strangifer so we gucci
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069686294#!/compare/1498348800/1498608000
Circling TF Logo Modest Pile of Hat (51), Circling Heart Modest Pile of Hat (110), Holy Grail Taunt: Rock, Paper, Scissors (140) total 351 keys
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1498608000/1498780800
Burning Flames Backwards Ballcap (250), Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Scattergun sellers at (22), Burning Flames Tyrant's Helm (duped)
mini on Helm
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036974964#!/compare/1497484800/1497657600
Stormy Storm Master's Yellow Belt (27) Burning Flames Dr's Dapper Topper (225) total 252keys
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114097422#!/compare/1497225600/1497312000
Scorching Flames Pyromancer's Mask (211)
takin 200 flat due to b/o for almost a month
250+22+200= 470~ keys
total sales 350~,470~
taking 350-470 until there is another sale
The taunt is duped in Sale 1 https://backpack.tf/item/3703974837
Seller also had a B/O of 48 on the TF Pile http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29248574
Your math is off on sale 1. Those three items combined are 301 not 351. That sale might end up an outlier? Hard to say given the 425 seller on marketplace
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/59808686cf6c7509652ffcd8 - other mini I put here on the tyrants puts the sale closer to 450. I think you're closer than the other suggestion on that sale value.