Sale 1:

Sold for Dead Presidents Industrial Festivizer (16) + 3 keys

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1493942400/1494028800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369860557#!/compare/1493942400/1494028800

X = 19

Sale 2:

Sold for Silver Cyclone I See You (In-date at 18, 12 day old seller at 15, and another seller at 14.5 taking <16.5)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051479617#!/compare/1499212800/1499385600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170589381#!/compare/1499299200/1499385600

X = 16

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys + ~15 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29179805 - B/O of ~13.3 2 months before it sold

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1499904000/1499990400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074978649#!/compare/1499904000/1499990400

Gonna round up, some ref may be missing.

X = 13

Sale 4:

Quicksold for 12 keys + 10 ref

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1500249600/1500336000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186912513#!/compare/1500249600/1500336000

X = 12

Sale 5:

Quicksold for 10 keys + ~1 key in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29283151 - B/O of 14

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361458405#!/compare/1500336000/1500422400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263554272#!/compare/1500336000/1500422400

X = 11

Sale 6:

Bulk for Aussie RL

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141759436#!/compare/1498435200/1498521600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317484508#!/compare/1498348800/1498521600

Sellers:

12 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/YSVleeZ.png

13 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/9Ieb1vD.jpg

~13.7 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/GTGfrYV.png - Scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/item/5092568879 - 6 days

Sales at:

11

12

13

16

19

19 is high, and would be lower if we knew the B/O. Excluding 19.

11 quicksold. Excluding 11.

Sales at 12 and 13 are pretty similar in value (being only a couple ref off), and the sale at 12 took a day while the sale at 13 took several months to sell. Shouldn’t really exclude 12 due to this. Current seller at 12 supports this.

Going with 12-16.