Sale 1:

Sold for Smoking Brain Bucket (11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29248156 - B/O of 10.67

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273700921#!/compare/1498608000/1498694400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042464632#!/compare/1493337600/1498867200

X = 11

Sale 2:

Sold for 10 keys + 11 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1493596800/1493683200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172065783#!/compare/1493683200/1493942400

X = 10

Sale 3:

Quicksold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128838220#!/compare/1499212800/1499299200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031888870#!/compare/1499212800/1499299200

X = 10

Sale 4:

Sold for 9 keys + 20 ref

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020918007#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106917670#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800

X = 10

Sale 5:

Sold for 10 keys (ID’s match)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163565717#!/compare/1499731200/1499990400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133887117#!/compare/1499904000/1499990400

X = 10

Sale 6:

Sold for 10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29284271 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133887117#!/compare/1500508800/1500595200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101378846#!/compare/1500508800/1500595200

X = 10

Sale 7:

Sold for 10 keys + <0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1493942400/1494028800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115344349#!/compare/1493856000/1494028800

X = 10

Sale 8:

Sold with 3 keys for Blizzardy Larrikin Robin (13.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29232277 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081639433#!/compare/1497657600/1497744000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338556449#!/compare/1497657600/1497744000

X = 10 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 9:

Sold with 15 ref for 9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29251142 - B/O of 11

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042464632#!/compare/1499126400/1499212800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047860018#!/compare/1498953600/1499126400

X = 9

Sale 10:

Quicksold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047860018#!/compare/1499126400/1499212800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066876703#!/compare/1498521600/1499212800

X = 9

Sale 11:

Sold with 4 ref for 9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29259255 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066876703#!/compare/1499472000/1499558400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346118738#!/compare/1499385600/1499558400

X = 9

Sale 12:

Sold for Pro. KS Scattergun skin

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115344349#!/compare/1496793600/1496880000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034776989#!/compare/1496707200/1496880000

?

Sale 13:

Bulk for GE Bombing Run

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106917670#!/compare/1499990400/1500076800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207603105#!/compare/1499990400/1500076800

Sale 14:

Sold with ~6 keys in items for Spec. KS Aussie Grenade Launcher (15)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172065783#!/compare/1499212800/1499299200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128838220#!/compare/1499212800/1499299200

Sale like this shouldn’t be used here.

Sale 15:

no

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338556449#!/compare/1500768000/1500854400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306593373#!/compare/1500163200/1500854400

no

Sellers:

11 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/pyMMSKU.png (2x)

Sales at:

9 (3x)

10 (7x)

11

Sale 9 (before rounding) is less than what quickbuyers are paying for, so we can exclude that. Now we have 2 sales at 9, one of which quicksold. Excluding 9.

http://i.imgur.com/0h4hLKN.png (buyers at 8.6)

11 looks like an outlier too, as it isn’t pure, and the majority of sales occurred at 10 keys. Excluding 11.

Going with 10 flat.