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If youre playing my drinking game, take a shot now (again)!
and yes its a dupe but hey only thing I can use
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196627443#!/compare/1501372800/1501459200
sold for GE herald and 5 keys
73+5 = 78
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083073025#!/compare/1500163200/1500249600
CH das madden
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29279826
had an 80 key b/o but used for an upgrade: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1500508800/1500595200
unsold 4 months at 74
http://imgur.com/a/OBFJf
seems to have been purchased from scrap for 48 keys, not using https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073553007#!/compare/1499644800/1499731200
(quickbuyer at 48 in the screenshot anyway)
I dont think you can usually price on a dupe unless its raising it but since there are to reported clean sales and its close enough to be a refresh it should be okay. Upvote from me