Sale 1:

Sold with 2 keys for Terror-Watt Tippler’s Tricorne (13.5)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103010992#!/compare/1501459200/1501545600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064833440#!/compare/1501459200/1501545600

X = 12

Sales 2, 3, 4 and 5:

Sold on Marketplace.tf for:

$19.49 (twice)

$19.98

$21.62

https://marketplace.tf/items/158;5;u35

Not gonna bother with item histories lol

19.49/2.05 > 9.5

19.98/2.05 = ~9.7

21.62/2.05 > 10.5

X = 10 (3x) and 11

Sale 6:

Sold for 9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29290026 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108999#!/compare/1501804800/1501891200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153160558#!/compare/1501718400/1501891200

X = 9

Sale 7:

Sold for Stormy Storm Big Elfin Deal

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29240639 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035805524#!/compare/1498089600/1498176000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198364997419#!/compare/1498089600/1498176000

Can be used on the Elf. Would fall in the range if used here anyways.

Sale 8:

Bulk for Duped Burning Fro

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1500422400/1500508800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052772297#!/compare/1500422400/1500508800

Sale 9:

Bulk for Starstorm Insomnia Kiss King

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052772297#!/compare/1500422400/1500508800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296168912#!/compare/1500422400/1500508800

Sellers:

~8.5 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/HYZ1z0B.png - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29330759

9 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/SD1bYZ1.png - 12 days

10 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/uumgqOi.png - 14 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29252014 - 1 month

Sales at:

9

10 (3x)

11

12

Sale at 12 probably shouldn’t be used here. Guaranteed to be much lower if the B/O was present. Excluding 12.

Sale at 11 seems pretty high, given the other sales and the current sellers. The exact value of the sale was pretty close to 10.5, so excluding it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Excluding 12.

Going with 9-10.