Sale 1:

Sold with 1 key in ref for Aces High Coldsnap Cap (44)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298352491#!/compare/1502496000/1502668800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110535810#!/compare/1502323200/1502668800

X = 43

Sale 2:

Sold with ~3 keys in items for Eldritch Flame B'aaarrgh-n-Bicorne (38)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110535810#!/compare/1502755200/1502841600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256688162#!/compare/1502755200/1502841600

X = 35

Sale 3:

Quicksold for 28 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29332169 - B/O of 38

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066400628#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155383532#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

X = 28

Sale 4:

Sold for Max's with Chromatic Corruption (Mini at 25 below)

http://i.imgur.com/h5RUnPo.png - B/O of 40 (Cached link)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041348562#!/compare/1502323200/1502409600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298352491#!/compare/1502150400/1502409600

X = 25

Sale 5:

Sold with some amount of keys for Circling Heart Tossle

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29332680 - B/O of 30

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155383532#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090869623#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800

Best not to use this sale here.

Spelled Max's Mini:

Sold for Steaming Cotton Head (25)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145926906#!/compare/1501977600/1502064000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298352491#!/compare/1501977600/1502064000

X = 25

Seller at 35:

http://i.imgur.com/cxGj6tN.png

Sales at:

25

28

35

43

No current sellers (apart from the duped one on marketplace for like 70 keys).

Sale at 28 quicksold, excluding 28 and below.

There was another sale with ~6 keys worth for a purple energy vintage merryweather, which I excluded, as I planned to use it on the merryweather instead.

Going to exclude the sale at 43 as well, for the following reasons:

1. Lack of B/O. Could've been, like, 30, but we can not see it.

2. There are plenty of sales and B/Os for lower that indicate that this shouldn't be raising. The screenshot of B/O of 40 on sale 4 was taken 8 days before it sold, so it took almost a month to sell with a B/O of 40. The seller also had the item for about 3 months before selling, so there's a good chance they had re-listed, or lowered it from a higher price too.

3. The Aces Coldsnap involed in the sale at 43, while in-date, and with no current sellers, seems pretty overpriced. Looking into recent sales, here's what I could find:

28 keys (6 days)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298210084#!/compare/1502150400/1502236800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271428863#!/compare/1502064000/1502236800

28 keys, again (~5 days? was traded back before getting rid of it)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271428863#!/compare/1502496000/1502582400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136469690#!/compare/1502496000/1502582400

28 keys.....again (~1 day)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150003365#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261521812#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

Strange Ancient Codex Phononaut (36.5) + 5 keys, 42 total

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261521812#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202168173#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400

Purple Energy Brain-Warming Wear (41.5, month old sellers at 38 and 40, taking 40) + 1 key, 41 total

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202168173#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011240124#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800

with 6 keys for Frostbite Employee (42.5), 37 total

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29330636 - B/O of 38

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092698112#!/compare/1503100800/1503187200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1503100800/1503187200

This may not be all the sales, this is just what I could find.

So, with all this in mind, I'll exclude the sale at 43. Feedback on this decision would be appreciated.

Going with 35 flat.