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Ima try my hand at this since the other dude closed
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Let's get this part out of the way,
Clean one hasnt sold since April 2016: https://backpack.tf/item/4549877915
and hasnt been on sale since
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Duped one on MP.tf https://marketplace.tf/items/30327;5;u13
Has been there since April 26th if histories are correct
https://backpack.tf/item/3310031058
340 / 1.91 = 178, clearly unsold
Another duped one on Scrap.tf
https://backpack.tf/item/3310031058
Been there since April as well
Unsold for months at ~105 https://gyazo.com/ff6ff57c22f02118c01650bdcf0f1fc6
Not to mention on MP there was a sale at $140 in Jan. but thats outdated af obv
So
Unsold for months at 178
Unsold for months at 105
Clean hasnt been on market for a year and 5 months, safe to say it wont be for sale for a long time
Lets drop it to 105 cmon
The scrap.tf price is not fixed. Last suggestion shows 94-95 keys. It is also duped as you mentioned so no this shouldnt work.
the price isnt fixed but the duped thing doesnt matter at this point anymore, clean isnt on market anymore so it only leaves the duped ones, leaving up as is since price is 105 now
It does matter when there are potentially 3 or 4 other clean ones that exist. There are 2 on the scm. Clean or duped, we dont know that. http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Toy%20Tailor
All the more reason, most expensive seller at 329.14 / 2.48 = 132, and the cheapest being 301.70 / 2.48 = 122, supports the drop, but being we cant tell if theyre duped or clean doesnt really matter, all that matters is theyre being sold less than BP price so its supporting evidence
other than that i cant put a range since i dont know how long theyve been there
The clean one has been on the market less than a year ago ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28721786 ), and the owner is still active. Therefore, this does not meet our requirements for dropping a hat based on a dupe.