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ANOTHER RESUGGEST BECAUSE SOMEONE TOLD ME 20 FLAT - BUT SALE AT 17,5 (Roughly) and it has to be rounded up. This is my last time re suggesting
Sale 1 - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318847306#!/compare/1505952000/1506124800 - 17.5
Sale 2 - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148749332#!/compare/1490745600/1491004800 - a bit old but 20 keys (maybe not usable)
sales up to 3 months can be used. mature sales obviously prefered as evidence and not quicksales either.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415525729#!/compare/1506124800/1506211200
Potentially a panic quicksell
Sale two is too old
Sellers dropped from the full price to 20-21 also
agreed. I was against the price drop but looking at the evidence, i think its quite fair to drop the price.
As wyn stated, your second sale is too old. You should just ignore sales that are around 3 months old or older.
Problem is all the other sales have been qsales recently
Sales can only be three months old unless it's a few weeks out, the only sale, and is a better representation of the market.
how about this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292156436#!/compare/1504483200/1504656000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214699379#!/compare/1504483200/1504656000
and this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198401958573#!/compare/1505952000/1506038400
and this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142721484#!/compare/1505692800/1506038400
https://backpack.tf/item/1371034748
(planets le phantome)
and this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049582642#!/compare/1503273600/1503446400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1503360000/1503446400
18 keys? (need to check the histiry of each)
and this
https://marketplace.tf/shopitem/m9s/319;5;u29/Stormy%20Storm%20Détective%20Noir
Also sold with spec strange BB for something
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257270574#!/compare/1505692800/1505952000
Bot's sale, but keys went missing
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1503273600/1503360000
Sorry for bad research, cheers for some sales tho
Also Hellcat sold it, but forgot about b\o http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29323342
Too many trades, check it yourself, or ask him
15 or 16 (taunt's history is lost)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082848285#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800
Are you suggesting I drop it lower?
A lot of people selling at 19 now to
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082848285#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800 - 15 pure (countered by buyers)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214699379#!/compare/1504483200/1504656000 - Steaming Cowl + sweets, ~25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29319509 - Mature seller for 20 (~2 months)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29411831 - Young seller for 22
And multiple sellers for 20 on classifieds that recently went inactive. 25 is likely a high outlier here.
Your sale for 20 is too old to use, as others have mentioned.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318847306#!/compare/1506124800/1506211200 - Re-sold for 18 and sweets in about a day and a half
Sales for ~18 tend to be fast, but they're a common trading point.
Noir for Phantom sale mentioned in the comments is usable but requires a mini for the Phantom, which is outdated.
https://backpack.tf/item/1371034748 - Noir
https://backpack.tf/item/1866124118 - Phantom
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142721484#!/compare/1505692800/1506038400 - ~1 key of sweets have matching histories and were added with the Noir
Phantom mini: https://i.imgur.com/3S16l60.png - 19 CSGO keys, so ~21 TF2 keys
~21 keys for the Phantom, which supports your current high end with the key worth of sweets factored in.
I could find nothing else usable in the sales mentioned in the comments or elsewhere for that matter - items either don't match, or sales were around buy order price.
If the Phantom sale hadn't supported your high end exactly, this would have been closed because the previous high end sale is too old. But luckily enough for you, suggested range seems fine.