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https://marketplace.tf/items/139;5;u36
~22 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1502323200/1502409600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125553840#!/compare/1502236800/1502409600
Untrac
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205213881#!/compare/1502928000/1503014400
19 pure, took a week, usable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205213881#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800
qs @~18
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030058573#!/compare/1503964800/1504396800
??
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385727483#!/compare/1506902400/1506988800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070339070#!/compare/1506902400/1506988800
With 8 keys and Stormy Handyman (3 sellers @9) for Stormy Topper = 19 keys
Topper mini:
https://marketplace.tf/items/252;5;u29
Sales @28 and 41 keys. Taking avg = 35.5 key
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385727483#!/compare/1506988800/1507075200
Better on Conq
Topper sale should for sure be used on the Topper rather than here. Just because something is just above the 50% bulk designation does not automatically mean it's good to go - sales like that should be prioritized towards the hats that make up 100% of their side rather than those that make up barely over 50% as often as possible. And you have another sale for 19 here anyway.
Actually, looks like you did use it there as well: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/59d68fdacf6c753fda6b86c5
Don't do that ever. Any sale you use should be used for only one of the hats involved. Saying the Modest is worth x because you mini'd the Topper at y and then turning around and giving the Topper a different price with that same sale based on your other Topper mini is circular logic. Topper worth z because Modest worth x because Topper worth y... see the problem there? And it was doubly pointless here because as I mentioned already - you already had a Modest sale at 19.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1504656000/1504828800 - TaW Rebel (23) + 11 pure, significant high outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042938501#!/compare/1499990400/1500076800 - 21 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128276213#!/compare/1504742400/1504828800 - Blizz Tavish + C9 Shako, Tavish needs a mini, but probably 24/25, and probably also a bit high
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29356454 - B/O was 25
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1507766400/1507852800 - 19 pure, took about a week
Current sellers: https://imgur.com/a/Ci9GS - Seller for 19.74 has been re-listing for almost 2 weeks, so isn't actually that young
I think it's fair to call the higher sales outliers given the time it takes to sell one of these for 19/20.