Sales 1-4:

Sold for $26.4 (2x), $23.99 and $24.2 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/324;5;u36

https://backpack.tf/item/1171667673

https://backpack.tf/item/1653670898 (only histories I could find with marketplace sales in them)

26.4/2.05 = ~12.9 (1 d.p.)

26.4/1.95 = ~13.5 (1 d.p.)

23.99/1.94 = ~12.4 (1 d.p.)

24.2/1.94 = ~12.47 (2 d.p.)

X = 13 (2x, rounding ~13.5 down to create a better range)

X = 12 (2x)

Sale 5:

Sold for DBD Robo-Glove (13) + ~1 key in items

https://i.imgur.com/LWuYVmu.png - B/O of 12?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1504915200/1505001600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331590002#!/compare/1504915200/1505001600

X = 12 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 6:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159855421#!/compare/1501459200/1501545600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121057673#!/compare/1501372800/1501545600

X = 11

Sale 7:

Sold for 11 keys < 0.5 keys in ref

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1500854400/1500940800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129514696#!/compare/1500854400/1500940800

X = 11

Sale 8:

Sold for 11 keys in a day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29309784 - No B/O

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037636076#!/compare/1501632000/1501718400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054280330#!/compare/1501632000/1501718400

X = 11

Sale 9:

Sold for 11 keys in about a day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29325662 - B/O of 11

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1502582400/1502668800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283572297#!/compare/1502582400/1502668800

X = 11

Sale 10:

Sold in about a day for 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29317278 - B/O of 11

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993057065#!/compare/1502064000/1502150400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252650882#!/compare/1502150400/1502236800

X = 11

Sale 11:

Sold for 11 keys + 9 ref

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1505606400/1505692800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095524366#!/compare/1505520000/1505692800

X = 11

Sale 12:

Sold with some ref for 9 keys + ~1 key in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322864239#!/compare/1504224000/1504915200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198332539#!/compare/1504828800/1504915200

X = 10

Sale 13:

Bulk for something

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283572297#!/compare/1503273600/1503619200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046114868#!/compare/1503100800/1503273600

Sale 14:

Bulk for Stormy Modest Metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046114868#!/compare/1503532800/1503619200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971076263#!/compare/1503532800/1503619200

Sale 15:

Bulk for Planets Modest Metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971076263#!/compare/1504828800/1504915200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127328235#!/compare/1504828800/1504915200

Sale 16:

Bulk for Haunted Phantasm Jr Grenadier’s Softcap

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127328235#!/compare/1504915200/1505001600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1504915200/1505001600

Sale 17:

Bulk for Miami Nights Tossle

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121057673#!/compare/1501977600/1502064000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993057065#!/compare/1502064000/1502150400

Sale 18:

Bulk for aussie minigun

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054280330#!/compare/1501977600/1502064000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116732510#!/compare/1501977600/1502064000

Sale 19:

Bulk for something

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116732510#!/compare/1502150400/1502236800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094730000#!/compare/1502150400/1502236800

Sale 20:

Sold for Nuts n’ Bolts Trilby + C.A.P.P.E.R (2)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198249837266#!/compare/1500768000/1500854400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188039146#!/compare/1500768000/1500854400

Couldn’t get a mini on the Trilby. Can be used on that instead.

Sale 21:

Sold for Aces High Conquistador + cheap cosmetic

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248119382#!/compare/1501632000/1501718400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037636076#!/compare/1501632000/1501718400

This’ll either fall in the range or be excluded by the quickbuyer, so I’m not gonna bother with finding a mini on the conquistador. I’ve done enough here, god damnit.

Sellers:

~11.2 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/d7KgJfO.png - 13 days

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29367624

Sales at:

10

11 (6x)

12 (2x)

13 (2x)

Buyers at 10+ keys:

https://i.imgur.com/4JI1lcu.png

Excluding 10.

Some sales at 11 quicksold, but sales at 11 are FAR too common, and the seller at 11.2 keys supports 11 being the low-end.

Going with 11-13.