Sale 1:

Sold for Orbiting Fire Crocleather Slouch (In-date at 14.5, seller at 14, taking 14)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1503532800/1503619200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030550493#!/compare/1503100800/1503619200

X = 14

Sales 2 & 3:

Sold for $22 and $19 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30827;5;u36

https://backpack.tf/item/5369318383

https://backpack.tf/item/5373011947

22/1.95 = ~11.3

19/2.05 = ~9.3

X = 11

X = 9

Sale 4:

Sold with ~3 keys in items for Terror-Watt Magistrate’s Mullet (13)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030550493#!/compare/1503619200/1503705600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053747026#!/compare/1503532800/1503619200

X = 10

Sale 5:

Sold for 10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29320435 - B/O of 11

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1502496000/1502582400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142511800#!/compare/1502496000/1502582400

X = 10

Sale 6:

Sold for 9 keys + a couple ref

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079328856#!/compare/1503014400/1503100800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256427028#!/compare/1499731200/1503100800

X = 9

Sellers:

~10.3 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/NbZWFLp.png - 1 month

Sales at:

9 (2x)

10 (2x)

11

14

Month-old seller at 10.3 shows that it does not sell well for that price or higher. Excluding 11 and 14.

Buyers at 9:

https://i.imgur.com/QkSAecO.png

Excluding 9.

Going with 10 flat.