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The Sale:
Sold for 12 keys
No outpost
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213826044#!/compare/1505088000/1505174400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131133624#!/compare/1505088000/1505174400
X = 12
Only other sale I could find went to a bot:
https://backpack.tf/item/1710866930
Sellers:
< 11.5 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/IFJ6Iwv.png - 22 days
12 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/H6GUImC.png - 21 days
Sale at 12
Aged seller at 11.5.
Going with 11-12.