Sale 1:

Sold with 2 keys and ~1 key in items for DBD Festivizer (30)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109753033#!/compare/1506384000/1506470400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243350308#!/compare/1506470400/1506643200

X = 27

Sale 2:

Sold for $48 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/107;5;u11

Couldn’t identify item’s history.

48/1.9 = ~25.3

X = 25

Sale 3:

Sold for 21 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978210095#!/compare/1506124800/1506211200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083137273#!/compare/1506038400/1506211200

X = 21

Sale 4:

Sold for 20 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1507593600/1507680000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126679929#!/compare/1507593600/1507680000

X = 20

Sale 5:

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Fed-Fightin’ Fedora (Suggestion at 16.5) + Strange Weight-Room Warmer (~3.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29397984 - No visible B/O

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1507939200/1508025600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096390494#!/compare/1507939200/1508025600

X = 20

Sale 6:

Sold with ~4.5 keys in taunts for Smoking Dapper Topper (23.5)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161496875#!/compare/1504396800/1504915200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978210095#!/compare/1504915200/1505001600

X = 19

(would be better to update the dapper with this sale, but it falls into the range here anyways.)

Sale 7:

Sold for 19 keys (Buyer’s compare link)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049973071#!/compare/1508544000/1508630400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402671817#!/compare/1508457600/1508630400

X = 19

Sale 8:

Sold for Stormy Voodoo (Suggestion at 17) + ~1 key in metal (more metal on the buyer’s end)

No B/O’s on outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132226518#!/compare/1507852800/1507939200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049973071#!/compare/1507852800/1507939200

X = 18

Sale 9:

Sold for 6 keys in pure/items + Terror-Watt Mann of Reason

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413211305#!/compare/1506729600/1506816000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248967314#!/compare/1506729600/1506816000

Seems rather high, excluding.

Sale 10:

Sold with 8 keys for Cauldron Bubbles Pickel

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127735616#!/compare/1509667200/1509840000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1509753600/1509840000

Should be used on the Pickel.

Sale 11:

Sold for Stormy El Jefe

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306014701#!/compare/1506211200/1506297600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1506211200/1506297600

Probably better to use on the Jefe.

Sale 12:

Bulk for Burning Dapper

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126679929#!/compare/1507766400/1507939200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175249965#!/compare/1507593600/1507939200\

Sale 13:

Sold for Vivid Respectless Rubber Glove + ~8 keys in pure/items

No B/O’s on outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1505692800/1505779200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128462779#!/compare/1505692800/1505779200

Will be an outlier without a B/O cap, excluding.

Stormy Voodoo:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a0a7fb7cf6c7554c523a894

Blizzardy Storm Fed Fightin’ Fedora:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a0a940544325a1173574cae

Sellers:

18.45 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/RNZSJir.png - young

19 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/nbVMyN5.png - 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29417628 - 2 weeks

20 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/WlJ2mRQ.png - 10 days

Sales at:

18

19 (2x)

20 (2x)

21

25

27

The abundance of sellers at 18-20 show that it doesn’t sell well for more than that. Also, the pure sales seem to occur in the 18-21 range. Excluding 25 and 27.

Going with 18-21.