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Sold for 19 Keys, Outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112660684#!/compare/1510272000/1510358400
Added 2 Keys and negligible sweets for a Steaming Le Party Phantom(18 Keys)(16 Keys total)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1510099200/1510185600
Sold for 13 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043939870#!/compare/1508198400/1508457600
There were two sellers at 15 Keys, but both of their sales are untraceable, so they're not valid. Either way, this would mean that 19's too high, and 13's too low.
16 Keys should be fine here
I was going to say that you shouldn't be excluding the sale at 19 pure until I saw this:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29199988 - 6 months at 17