Sale 1:

Sold with taunt (1) for DBD Tartan Tyrolean (Suggestion at 26) + Pro. KS Aussie Ambassador (13)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1510704000/1510790400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061007968#!/compare/1510790400/1510876800

X = 38

Sale 2:

Sold for Duped Green Confetti Blighted Beak

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29361701 - B/O of 32, seller confirms sale

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068404730#!/compare/1506816000/1506988800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202234288#!/compare/1506816000/1506902400

https://i.imgur.com/LdQHVSC.png - 3 quickbuyers at 33 keys, I’d say the duped variant isn’t going to be much different, and that this’ll most likely cap.

X = 32 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for 26 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149175706#!/compare/1512086400/1512345600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038978482#!/compare/1512259200/1512345600

X = 26

Sale 4:

Quicksold for 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309937181#!/compare/1506902400/1507334400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182795337#!/compare/1507248000/1507334400

X = 25

Sale 5:

Sold for Orbiting Fire Dead Cone (Mini at 11 below) + Blizzardy Whoopee Cap (In-date at 14.5, sellers at ~13, taking 14)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29456503 - B/O of 28

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112406131#!/compare/1511568000/1511654400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149175706#!/compare/1511568000/1511654400

X = 25

Sale 6:

Sold for 24 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202234288#!/compare/1507248000/1507334400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309937181#!/compare/1506902400/1507334400

X = 24

Sale 7:

Sold in ~2 days for 24 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263995096#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188461649#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200

X = 24

Sale 8:

Sold for 24 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062716217#!/compare/1510444800/1510617600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263995096#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200

X = 24

Sale 9:

Sold with ~2 keys in pure/items for Logo Naggenvatcher + cheap item

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182795337#!/compare/1507334400/1507420800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1507334400/1507420800

Can be used on the Naggen.

Sale 10:

Bulk for Logo Rotation

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188461649#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112663388#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200

Sale 11:

Bulk for Tesla Brigade

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112660684#!/compare/1510531200/1510704000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1510617600/1510704000

Sale 12:

Bulk for Morning Glory Hermes

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197980575764#!/compare/1510617600/1510704000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098410618#!/compare/1510531200/1510704000

Sale 13:

Bulk for Phantasm Fresh Brewed Victory

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098410618#!/compare/1510704000/1510790400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1510704000/1510790400

Sale 14:

Sold for Grail Breakdance

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112663388#!/compare/1510531200/1510617600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197980575764#!/compare/1510531200/1510617600

Not using taunt sales

Orbiting Fire Dead Cone Mini:

Sold for Whirlwind Disco + ~2 keys in pure/items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29459085 - B/O of 11

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1511827200/1511913600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355667121#!/compare/1511827200/1511913600

Should cap at the B/O.

X = 11 (Capped by B/O)

Sellers:

28 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/qvlWq0i.png - 7 days

https://i.imgur.com/9L5QpOK.png - young

36 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/TnyB6ro.png - 6 months

Sales at:

24 (3x)

25 (2x)

26

32

38

38 is an outlier. Excluding 38.

Some sales at 24-26 may have quicksold, but they are far too common to be excluded, and the current sellers support this.

Going with 24-32.