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https://s18.postimg.org/qemm3gzs9/Screenshot_from_2017-12-14_20_53_58.png
Bought mine for 300 keys.
https://s18.postimg.org/4s7lmhj89/Screenshot_from_2017-12-14_20_56_15.png
Still unsold at $605.
congrats on the buy but there are a lot of more sales found here
https://backpack.tf/item/5777872241
https://backpack.tf/item/4959900721
https://backpack.tf/item/3283267738
30%-40% overpay for an item trade wouldn't be unreasonable, (plus trading for taunts, which are currently overvalued...) So I'm going to stand by 300 keys here.
if there is more then one sale then it cannot be priced of one sale they sales history i posted may have sales higher or lower then 300 which would mean 300 is inaccurate and a suggestion would be needed
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29411999
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200
Demonflame Armored Authority(outdated) + duped Orbiting Fire Soldier's Stash(needs mini as it's duped) + Cloud 9 Well-Rounded Rifleman(outdated) + Circling TF Logo Coldsnap Cap(outdated) + Infernal Flames Taunt: The Victory Lap(outdated) + Terror-Watt Respectless Robo-Glove(outdated)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050745352#!/compare/1510358400/1510444800
Sold for a Scorching Flames Le Party Phantom(outdated) + Arcana Safe'n'Sound
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a198febcf6c75497f2fa69b Safe'n'Sound = 250?
https://backpack.tf/item/3283267738
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29444284 444 b/o
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994660517#!/compare/1511654400/1511740800
Sold for a duped Sunbeams Large Luchadore(needs mini as it's duped) + Vivid Plasma Your Worst Nightmare(38, just inside 4 months) + Disco Beat Down Baron von Havenaplane(outdated) + Stormy Storm Doctor's Sack(outdated) + Miami Nights Respectless Robo-Glove(outdated) + Stormy Storm Glengarry Bonnet(outdated) + Smoking Bombing Run(slightly outdated) + Orbiting Fire Furious Fukaamigasa(outdated)
JoXu best boy, can help with some of the minis, because doing this alone would be a suicide mission lol.
On the sns/phantom sale: a p.fetti lucky and some keys were added as well:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040254772#!/compare/1510358400/1510444800
Lucky has no usable minis; all recent sales (even the ones just outdated) are bulky sales that'd put the hat around 10-15 keys.
Comment below consists of a bunch of minis. Bold can be suggested, italic should be included as minis only.
Phantom:
Sold for another clean scorching phantom + keys? wtf lol
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993586962#!/compare/1511049600/1511136000
perhaps he cared for history length or some shit
burning phantom + 38 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050745352#!/compare/1510704000/1510790400
Thats a dead end, all burning phantom sales are bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043892377#!/compare/1508457600/1508630400 veil
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1508889600/1508976000 view
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216561389#!/compare/1510272000/1510358400 crones
=======================================================================================================
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29444284 on this sale
Baron: 21 keys
17 pure (close to buyers)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140010255#!/compare/1513209600/1513296000
21 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289040457#!/compare/1510012800/1510099200
21 will work, can be suggested at 21 flat.
Stormy sack: 10 keys
All sales here are sales to and from scrap.tf, to quickbuy bots or involving scammers.
https://imgur.com/a/PWzgw unsold at 10 for at least 12 days; probably more as he has likely relisted.
Duped beams lucha: 114?
Searing tower + a few keys + flies crones?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070143554#!/compare/1508803200/1508889600
bulk for burning texas dome
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1508544000/1508630400
114 keys - probably to a buyer, though
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050027232#!/compare/1507680000/1507852800
Unsold at marketplace for ages at ~160 ish. 114 is probably low but its the closest to an actual mini I can get.
Miami roboglove: 10 keys
To a buyer for 9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347491669#!/compare/1509235200/1509494400
10 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214375573#!/compare/1513036800/1513296000
bubbling elf (~9 based on sellers) + 2 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321160616#!/compare/1511654400/1511827200
duped planets sack (9; buyers counter)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053410707#!/compare/1511568000/1511654400
planets commando elite - should be used there instead, though probably an outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007900590#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200
9 pure, buyers counter
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255395265#!/compare/1509494400/1509667200
Due to the abundance of 9 key sales I would also exclude 11 or make it 9-11, both of which make for an average of 10 keys. The rest is either a sale to or from a buying bot, or untraceable.
Stormy glen: 12-13
11 pure (buyers counter)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1510963200/1511049600
probably sold for keys resold for ref, idk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060540155#!/compare/1506816000/1506902400
13 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018528305#!/compare/1508371200/1508457600
12 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1509926400/1510012800
bulk for that scatter
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1510099200/1510185600
12-13 will work
Smoking bombing run: 10 keys
probably sold for keys to a buyer and then bought taunts and stuff
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277969742#!/compare/1512086400/1512518400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1512000000/1512086400 instantly flipped after to a buyer anyway
6 keys + minimal adds?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067008321#!/compare/1508630400/1508716800
probably more, used to buy the kit, but idk
presumably sold for that taunt (not sure if 1:1 though), outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191864918#!/compare/1508630400/1508716800
orbfire prancer ~10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346378877#!/compare/1509148800/1509235200 (histories match)
strange prof machina ~11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045466865#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200
festive scatter + few keys and ref; way low
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112135409#!/compare/1509148800/1509235200
cant trace but likely 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1508716800/1508803200
Aces samur, resold for that taunt?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162612060#!/compare/1509926400/1511568000
Samur would be an outlier. Taunt likely fits the range
7 keys and sweets, buyers counter
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050246963#!/compare/1509926400/1510012800
Rest of the sales are bots, buyers or untracable
https://imgur.com/a/hhsof sellers at 9 (really young) and 10 (a lot). 9 can be counted as too young; I'd go 10 flat here (or 9-11 I guess, though if you do the latter its best to wait)
Orbiting fire fukamigasa: 12 keys
12 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1508025600/1508112000
Quicksold for 11 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065854668#!/compare/1512864000/1512950400 (doesnt even show up in the compare)
2:1 for that exe
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099653045#!/compare/1512604800/1512950400
SCM
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988155310#!/compare/1510272000/1510704000
thats why its untradable in the sale above
TaW elf, should probably be used for that
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164570488#!/compare/1507852800/1507939200
Couldnt find many proper sales on that; most are scrap sales or sales for hats that in turn need minis and are probably overpriced.
With all that, this sale comes to 228, probably low because of the low lucha mini. Otherwise it would be around the suggested value.
=======================================================================================================
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29411999 on this sale:
Demonflame AA:
Cant be sure what this sold for; youll need to confirm with any of the parties involved. It was a key sale, so if you can find the sale you can update the AA.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050521299#!/compare/1506470400/1507507200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070660424#!/compare/1506384000/1506556800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961172123#!/compare/1506470400/1506556800
The keys were immediately used to purchase that KaW TC, which is why the sale is so tricky to trace.
Stash: 33?
33 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1506470400/1506556800
I presume this was more though. Cant trace anything else
Rifleman: 50 keys
Taunt
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032245273#!/compare/1511049600/1511136000
50 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1511049600/1511136000
50 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069813252#!/compare/1510444800/1510531200
bulk CMoon dapper
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095360177#!/compare/1512777600/1512864000
DaD noble
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1509580800/1509667200
outlier
young seller at 38, presuming that'll sell fast-ish, 50 should work based on two pure sales
Logo snap: 48 keys
48 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078551174#!/compare/1512000000/1512172800
2:1 duped tossle, cant use
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088583151#!/compare/1508889600/1508976000
48 may be on the low side here though honestly - that should be about right, realisticly.
Lap: 87
orb pullover ~123, probably high/too short after the jungle inferno update.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065402907#!/compare/1509235200/1509321600
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1511308800/1511395200
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108909777#!/compare/1511654400/1511740800
other taunt stuff
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045174236#!/compare/1509062400/1509148800
dunno/cashout
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154171456#!/compare/1509580800/1513468800
ancient pullover?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1511740800/1511827200
I cant tell if the rest was involved or not. With them involved it'd support the seller value roughly.
Sellers at 87. Probably cant be updated yet
Glove: 11 keys
Blizz robobeanie (sellers ~11)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116024573#!/compare/1510272000/1510358400
With adds for eerie snaggle
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402830815#!/compare/1509753600/1509840000
Shouldnt be used here
orbfire inspecteur (Sellers ~11)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176312841#!/compare/1513468800/1513555200
Both sales support 11 as data point here.
That'd make the sale 230 + whatever the AA ends up at, likely close to 300 as well.
=======================================================================================================
To summarize, the sales support 300 as data point roughly, but can't be used for one reason or another.