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~540 keys
moon
Unusual Honcho's Headgear Cloudy Moon
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Cloudy Moon Honcho's Headgear


Sale 1: Sold for Vivid Plasma Patriot Peak (107.5) + Disco Beat Down Familiar Fez (20.5) --> 128

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130662205#!/compare/1513123200/1513209600

Mini Fez: Sold for 39.99 USD --> 20.5 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/223;5;u62

Mini Peak: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a367aed44325a257d5f2835


Sale 2: 87 keys pure.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101970268#!/compare/1511049600/1511136000

Not a quicksell because it took months to sell

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29430748

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29367849


Sale 3: Sold for Morning Glory Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130662205#!/compare/1512864000/1512950400

Using this on the Ninja Hood


Suggesting range from 87 to 130

    For Sale 2 the seller attempted to "quicksell" the unusual for a month unsuccessfully. Then he lowered the price, and after lowering the price I bought it in a couple of days (hence the new trade). I don't know if this counts as a quicksell or not but I thought I should add that.


    Conversation with the seller

    https://i.imgur.com/ubQkHxr.png

      We'll see

      I'll ask a mod about this

        I wouldn't make this so much about it being a quicksale or not; in my eyes it should however be an outlier based on deviation from the mean. The ninja sale supports the high end here rather than the low end.


        I don't see any listed price here (though I guess there has been one since he said he changes it all the time), but unless it was listed at 87 for those full 3 months, I would exclude it for the reason mentioned above. The reason it matters how long it was listed at a certain price is that thát's our indication that the suggested value would otherwise be too high. If it was listed at 87 and failed to sell for 3 months, then evidently it shouldn't be valued any higher for a suggestion. I only see "quickselling" and "Discounted", though, and for all we know he was "Discounting" for 130.


        Since the sale is so much lower than the other two sales, I would therefore exclude 87 as a low outlier here and use the ninja here instead of the other way round.

      Sold my CMoon Honcho's for 3 frostbite Buddies (45 each)

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1514678400/1514764800


      45 x 3 = 135


      What Foamy said, id call 87 a low outlier and go for 130 - 135

        Mindacos, however, said some days ago that this range works. Maybe the new sale changes this. I'll ask him again. Thanks for the link.

          Update! Apparently he wanted my Bonzo Burning Bandana, so he traded the honcho's along with other sweets. Better used there since it recently sold for 120 in unusuals!

            The trading back and forth makes the sales invalid. For now 87-130 stays. I talked to mindacos about it.

        Dumped on scrap

          Supports the drop and the range.

            It supports the drop yes but idk if it supports the range. Likely sold because nobody will buy an unusual with a suggestion to drop it by 30 keys

            I guess we can see what happens to it on scrap

              people will just wait to see if the price drop goes trough and snipe it instantly when / if it does like always

                That would support further that 87 should be in the range. The counter suggestion by Hugh is confusing at this point.

            Bought it for a vivid rack (90)

            https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1513900800/1513987200


            Should support it!