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TEAM 4 EVENT
Aces High Tavish DeGroot Experience
New price: 12 keys
[proof below]
SALE #1 = 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009244394#!/compare/1509753600/1511049600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103611423#!/compare/1510704000/1512086400
Sold for 12 keys. Miami Bonnet sold to scrap.tf and then those keys were used to purchase the Tavish.
SALE #2 = not using
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263843285#!/compare/1513296000/1513382400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157325020#!/compare/1513296000/1513382400
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198263843285 - no B/O
Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Sober Stuntman. Better used there.
SALE #3 = not using
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168863803#!/compare/1513209600/1513296000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263843285#!/compare/1513209600/1513296000
Sold for an Aces High Prancer’s Pride. Better used there.
SUMMARY
Sales:
Sellers: 10 / 11 / 13 keys
https://i.imgur.com/Bp7wTr1.png
Going with 12 keys.
There's two sellers at less than your suggested range(albeit young), yet you say that the one unusual that would give this it's proper range is better used for that?(Blizzardy Stuntman, two sellers at 10)
From a quick glance, I was able to find these sales on the stuntman:
Sold for 10 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064423172#!/compare/1513900800/1513987200
Sold for 11 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058156238#!/compare/1506643200/1506988800
Sold for a Steaming Chieftain's Challenge(12 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263843285#!/compare/1512950400/1513123200
Sold for 13 Keys and a ~3 Key wrench? Outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313999304#!/compare/1507680000/1507766400
So with the stuntman being priced at 10-12, this needs a range. Resuggest at 11-12.