Sale 1:

Sold for $44.99 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30109;5;u6

https://backpack.tf/item/5317675375

44.99/1.95 = ~23.1

X = 23

Sale 2:

Sold for 18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113759677#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200

The ballcap wasn’t involved.

X = 18

Sale 3:

Sold for 18 keys + less than half a key in ref/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1515628800/1515715200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285069332#!/compare/1515196800/1515715200

x = 18

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 16 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171946445#!/compare/1514246400/1514332800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1514160000/1514246400

X = 16

Sale 5:

Sold for 16 keys, took at least 10 days

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1515110400/1515196800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1515110400/1515196800

X = 16

Sale 6:

Sold for 15 keys to a quickbuyer

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078203677#!/compare/1513555200/1513641600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1513468800/1513641600

X = 15

Sellers:

17 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/GuQOpQP.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5505792323 - ~1 week

20 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/vUuNC5i.png

Sales at:

15

16 (2x)

18 (2x)

23

23 is an outlier. Excluding 23.

R+ubi is currently buying for 16 keys + 21 ref:

https://i.imgur.com/mu008Mp.png

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1St9ieYgU8EZKTXjG8R-mdcESNSOjMDPKeJTjb0DYU90/edit#gid=547237982

However, given the current sellers, the amount of sales lower than the buying price, the lack of buy order for this item in particular, and the fact that it took Toad more than 10 days to sell at 16, I’ll keep 16 in the range. It’s also very likely that R+ubi is going to lower their buying price when they see the suggestion anyways. Will exclude 15 though.

Going with 16-18.