0-30 days:

Sale 1:

Sold for Smoking Hound Dog (Mini at 12 below) + 2 keys

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212547641#!/compare/1511136000/1514332800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286154337#!/compare/1514332800/1514419200

X = 14

Sale 2:

Sold for ~12 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040224815#!/compare/1514160000/1514246400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050291639#!/compare/1513987200/1514246400

X = 12

Sale 3:

Sold for $22.30 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30614;5;u3008

https://backpack.tf/item/3845292636

22.3/1.9 = ~11.7

X = 12

Sale 4:

Sold for Stormy Storm Pyro’s Beanie (Mini at 11 below)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096247397#!/compare/1514332800/1514419200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260402484#!/compare/1514246400/1514332800

X = 11

Sale 5:

Sold for 7 keys + ~1 key in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050291639#!/compare/1515628800/1515715200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104925026#!/compare/1515369600/1515715200

X = 8

Sale 6:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171061573#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200

X = 8

Sale 7:

Sold for 8 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993057065#!/compare/1513987200/1514160000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040224815#!/compare/1514073600/1514160000

X = 8

Sale 8:

Most likely sold to a buy order for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104925026#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1515628800/1515715200

X = 8

Sale 9:

Sold for 7 keys + ~1 key in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260402484#!/compare/1514246400/1514332800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212547641#!/compare/1511136000/1514332800

X = 8

Sale 10:

Sold for Orbiting Planets Crocleather Slouch + ~4.5 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274139380#!/compare/1513468800/1513641600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145789441#!/compare/1513382400/1513641600

This one’s gonna be an outlier, excluding this sale.

Sale 11:

Bulk for Phantasm Rancho

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080559842#!/compare/1515110400/1515196800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171061573#!/compare/1514851200/1515196800

30-60 days:

Sale 12 & 13:

Sold for $19.98 and $20.50 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30614;5;u3008

https://backpack.tf/item/4132216381 (one of the items at least)

19.98/1.96 = ~10.2

20.50/1.95 = ~10.51

X = 10 & 11

Sale 14:

Sold for 9 keys + 1 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014222399#!/compare/1510876800/1511049600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018333134#!/compare/1510963200/1511049600

X = 9

Sale 15:

Sold for 5 keys + ~4 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140928358#!/compare/1513296000/1513468800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274139380#!/compare/1513382400/1513468800

X = 9

Sale 16:

Sold for 8 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1513036800/1513123200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140928358#!/compare/1513123200/1513296000

X = 8

Sale 17:

Quicksold for 7 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288100284#!/compare/1512864000/1513036800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244876968#!/compare/1512950400/1513036800

X = 7

Sale 18:

Bulk for DBD Deep Cover Operator

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018333134#!/compare/1511827200/1511913600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096247397#!/compare/1511827200/1511913600

Sale 19:

Bulk for Scorching Executioner

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1511308800/1511395200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355623215#!/compare/1510790400/1511395200

Stormy Storm Pyro’s Beanie Mini:

Sold for 11 keys (Buyer’s compare link)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127706592#!/compare/1515283200/1515542400

X = 11

Smoking Hound Dog Mini:

Sold for $23.99 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/145;5;u35

https://backpack.tf/item/3322155595

Should be around 12 keys.

X = 12

Sellers:

9 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/HweaSHm.png

https://i.imgur.com/IpCA9Ff.png - 2x

12 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/WT6hawq.png

20 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/nHZi8Rz.png

~31.3 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/fdprjZq.png

Steam Community Market Sellers:

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Most%20Wanted?filter=midnight

https://i.imgur.com/Rpxhbai.png

$20.30 (~8 keys)

$20.64 (~8 keys)

$24.99 (~10 keys)

$32.14 ( ~13 keys)

Sales at:

7 (>30 days)

8 (6x, 1x >30 days)

9 (2x >30 days)

10 (>30 days)

11 (2x, 1x >30 days)

12 (2x)

Even if I were to exclude the sales over 30 days old, the range would stay the same.

Excluding 7, too low for any unusual at the moment.

Keeping 8 in the range as it sold often for 8, and the buyer is likely to drop their price as well.

Sold pretty often for more than the current sellers, even within the last month. Keeping 12 in the range.

Going with 8-12 (ugly range, but at least it averages at 10)