0-30 days:

Sale 1: – Credit to Bird

Sold for $18.99 on Marketplace.tf

https://i.imgur.com/k0UWfWL.png - B/O of 9

https://marketplace.tf/items/30614;5;u3009

18.99/~10

X = 9 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for ~8 keys keys (Buyer confirms this sale, as well as another sale at ~8 keys)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092449612#!/compare/1515456000/1515542400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153043737#!/compare/1515456000/1515542400

https://i.imgur.com/KsXxZDy.png

X = 8

Sale 3:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114331465#!/compare/1513900800/1514160000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295873390#!/compare/1513814400/1514073600

Some of the keys were spent on the items the seller later received before the backpack was scanned. For example, the kazotsky came from a bot from the seller’s end, and one of the keys on the buyer’s end went to the same bot. The key and the kazotsky have pretty similar item ID’s, so it should be safe to assume that the keys were included.

X = 8

Sale 4:

Sold with cheap cosmetic for 3 taunt kills strange parts (~8)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198324836304#!/compare/1515110400/1515196800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087494715#!/compare/1515024000/1515196800

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a5a51c244325a637a6059d0 - given the sale at 2.8 keys in the snapshot (credit to cashew) and the successful buyers at 2.3 keys, this’ll end up being around 2.55 keys, which will round to 8 keys in this sale.

X = 8

Sale 5:

Most likely sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040380060#!/compare/1515801600/1516147200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000

https://i.imgur.com/PCL2DHY.png - buyer had a buy order at 8

X = 8

Sale 6

Bulk for Scorching Noh Mercy

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112099979#!/compare/1513555200/1513728000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085628805#!/compare/1513641600/1513728000

30-60 days:

Sale 7:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Big Elfin Deal (13, B/O drop) + cheap items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29465686 - B/O of 14

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199838907#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271988934#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200

X = 13

Sale 8:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175684483#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199838907#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200

X = 11

Sale 9:

Sold for 9 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259718372#!/compare/1511136000/1513296000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286234945#!/compare/1511568000/1511654400

X = 9

Sale 10:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020662618#!/compare/1512086400/1512259200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175684483#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200

X = 8

Sale 11:

Bulk for something

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286234945#!/compare/1512345600/1512518400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018719204#!/compare/1512432000/1512518400

Sale 12:

Bulk for Cloudy Moon Bonk Boy

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039834209#!/compare/1512864000/1512950400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1512864000/1512950400

Sale 13

Bulk for Morning Glory Rack

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1513036800/1513123200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1513036800/1513123200

Sellers:

9 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/NIQJgEh.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZO9JFKq.png

16 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/wvxNIqp.png - 24 days

19 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/YGoMMM4.png - 2 months

20 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/NpoXbX1.png - 1 month

25 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/lLKotmj.png - 1 month

Steam Community Market Sellers:

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Most%20Wanted?filter=cyclone

https://i.imgur.com/KsXxZDy.png

$20.36 (~8)

$20.49 (~8)

$20.64 (~8)

$21.96 (~9)

Sales at:

8 (4x in <30 days, 1 in >30 days)

9 (2x, 1 <30 days, 1 >30 days)

11 (>30 days)

13 (>30 days)

Excluding sales older than a month old.

Going with 8-9.