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Just traded around 50 keys for this yesterday. I think the price should reflect how rare the effect is on this specific hat. Few Araminthe, The Ooze, and Stare from Beyond on more recent hats.
Makes sense as buyout, for price suggestion you need actual sales.
Besides having actual sales (don't intend to sell it anytime soon), does what I said have merit/makes sense?
You can't make range from 1 sale.
You're right I cannot. But what I can do is look at similarity tiered items/effects and make a judgement off that. Considering the effects listed above and the lack of quantity of says effects. They should be priced similarly.