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Sold for 12 keys pure: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1516320000/1516406400
Marketplace.tf sale that’s three months and three days old: https://marketplace.tf/items/30809;5;u108;strange
It was sold for $22.99. As far as I know, keys were $1.91 at the time, so that equates to ~12.03 keys, which supports my proposed price of 12 keys flat.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066243501#!/compare/1517011200/1517270400 -unusable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066243501#!/compare/1515974400/1516406400 -unusable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358111400#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200 -histories don't match
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Unusual%20Wing%20Mann https://backpack.tf/item/5232188678 -SCM sale for 17.53 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174906237#!/compare/1514678400/1514764800 -taunt, will need mini
probably a few (or a lot of) errors, but the point is, it needs a range
The Steam Community Market sale at ~16.49 keys is an outlier. It’s one and a half months old, and Steam Community Market sales don’t take priority since Valve takes a 15% cut. Prices being higher than normal is natural.
Besides, we don’t know for sure that that specific hat was sold on the Steam Community Market that day.
Regarding the last sale that you listed, the Strange Tesla Coil Wing Mann wasn’t the only item that was sold for that taunt. Several Strange Professional Killstreak weapons, a Factory New Decorated Flame Thrower, a Batsaber, and a taunt priced at one key were also involved in the trade. The Wing Mann represents less than 50% in this trade and thus cannot be used.