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Circling Peace Sign Hong Kong Cone
Sale 1: Sold for Fountain of Delight Taunt: The Balloonibouncer (29) + Magnetic Hat Protector Captain Space Mann (110) + 5 keys pure --> 144
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326093863#!/compare/1512172800/1512259200
B/O: 150 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29463361
Mini Balloonibouncer: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a6b957acf6c7528af24ac5f
Sale 2: Sold for 61 keys pure + Scorching Flames Shooter's Sola Topi (35) --> 96
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180186261#!/compare/1512086400/1512172800
Sale 3: Sold for Anti-Freeze Slo-Poke (135)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994454891#!/compare/1512950400/1513036800
Sale 4: Sold for Haunted Ghosts Winter Woodsman (111.5) --> rounding to 112
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292242424#!/compare/1513036800/1513123200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074726928#!/compare/1513036800/1513123200
Mini Woodsman: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a4a7d08cf6c754d8f37cb5c
Sale 5: Sold together for Haunted Ghosts Tough Stuff Muffs (107.5) and 7 keys pure --> 114.5; rounding to 115
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064367685#!/compare/1517616000/1517788800
Mini Tough Stuff: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a7a6a0ccf6c75206c429b6b
Sale 7: Sold together with Australium Spec KS Grenade Launcher (13) for Anti-Freeze Your Worst Nightmare
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198452226254#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000
Using this on the YWN
Sale 7: Sold for Searing Plasma Galvanized Gibus and 10 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163204583#!/compare/1512518400/1512691200
Using this on Gibus
Sale 8: Sold for Stormy 13th Hour Nasty Norsemann
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028307864#!/compare/1516838400/1516924800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157176919#!/compare/1516838400/1517011200
Should be used on unpriced Norseman
Sale 9: Sold together with ~1 keys as sweets for Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106017833#!/compare/1512691200/1512777600
Mini Dbd BoA
Should be used on the BoA
Sale 10: Sold for duped Eerie Orbiting Fire Whoopee Cap + Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: The High Five! (14.5) + Bubbling Mining Light + Australium Eyelander (29) + 20 pure + ~12.5 keys sweets; excluding found no useable mini for Whoppe
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134512931#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000
Mini duped Whoope
Mini Minight Light
Sale 11: Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014728963#!/compare/1517702400/1517788800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115062041#!/compare/1517702400/1517788800
Sale 12: Untraceable; only a few keys match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292242424#!/compare/1513728000/1513814400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072492830#!/compare/1513728000/1513814400
Sales at: 96, 112, 115 135, 144
Buyers at 72.X; sellers at 140 (young); 150 (matured; over a month)
https://i.imgur.com/IHMiiki.png
Suggesting range from 95 to 145.
New sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29550758
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115062041#!/compare/1518825600/1518912000
Bulky for a GE Brown Bomber
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1518912000/1518998400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129293821#!/compare/1518912000/1518998400
Uh not sure bout this
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29542723 149 b/o
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072930863#!/compare/1518998400/1519084800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1518998400/1519084800
Use for the Darkblaze Professional if possible I guess.¨
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29527412 150 b/o
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1518048000/1518134400
Not sure, sold a Strange Haunted Phantasm Jr Deep Cover Operator in the same compare
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127328235#!/compare/1518048000/1518134400
Sold with a Spec.Aussie.SMG + Conga for a Searing Casemaker + Vivid Bot Dogger + S.C9 Elf Esteem
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127328235#!/compare/1518566400/1518739200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1518652800/1518739200
Cash and bulky?
Aight so there is a bunch of sellers for under 145 (all clean) - https://i.imgur.com/MAeXtr0.png , and the sale being used as 145 here seems to be pretty old. So imo i would just cut that out entirely.
The sale for 95 also seems to be a bit on the low side, and is also kinda old, as well as he only had it for like 5 days, So cut that one too. - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29458177
Out of the sales that Joxu linked the only useful one here is prolly this one
" https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127328235#!/compare/1518048000/1518134400
Sold with a Spec.Aussie.SMG + Conga for a Searing Casemaker + Vivid Bot Dogger + S.C9 Elf Esteem"
That needs minis as well, So I would look into minis on the those hats from that sale and it it falls between 112-135 then we good. If it does push towards more of a high end I'd be more ok with including 145.
As for now 112 or 110-135 seems like the right range to go with here. Unless as said before that new sales proves to support 145.
Thanks for the feedback, Randy. Why exactly is 96 low though? He didn't really quicksell it and compared to the other sales its not really an outlier. 112 and 115 are pretty much same close to 95 and 135 so I don't see how that would be an outlier?
Moreso the reason why Im cutting it off is that he didnt have it for long at all so im more inclined to call the sale low since he was prolly just trying to move it and the sale itself is old.
Im also all for the idea that if we see 2 sales that are kinda on their own at the outer points of the range we can cut them off with valid enough reason.
Example here being 95 was moved in 5 days and is an old trade, while 145 seems high as a high end due to age of sale and sellers show that its prolly high. So here since we got 2 sales at basically 115 and 1 at 135 which are always not as old I push more towards using more recent sales while making a tighter range that represents the price in a more accurate way.