Price Suggestion
Phosphorous Company Man
Submitted by ★ Scourge
78.08%
94 keys
98–109 keys
6
~200 keys
phosphorous
Unusual Company Man Phosphorous
57 votes up
16 votes down
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Comments

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Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1514332800/1514419200 Seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079641890#!/compare/1513987200/1514505600 Buyer

Sold for Miami Crone Dome + Strange Aspect(1.1)


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Crone Mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000 Seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043962993#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000 Buyer

Sold for 87 keys + Strange Balloonihoodie(16)

Total is 103 keys.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1514937600/1515024000 Seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107090195#!/compare/1514764800/1515024000 Buyer

Sold with Filamental(0.39) for 13th Hour Cockswain(70) + Spec KS Festivzed Aussie Rocket Launcher(43.27)

Total is (70 + 43.27) - 0.39 = 112.88 keys

Rounding to 113 keys.


Averaging 2 sales @ 108 keys.


================================================================================


Total is 108 + 1.1 = 109.1 keys.


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Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079641890#!/compare/1514505600/1514592000 Seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085628805#!/compare/1514505600/1514592000 Buyer

Sold for Flies Crit Cloak + Searing Hermes + Roboactive Sultan

Unable to find usable sale for Crit Cloak, ignoring.


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Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085628805#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600 Seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114444973#!/compare/1515801600/1515974400 Buyer

Sold for Peace Sign Bomber + Spec KS Aussie Medigun(28.8) + almost 4 keys in sweets


================================================================================


Bomber Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017112652#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130579834#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000

Sold for PF Rack(70) + Strange Festivized Killstreak FN Autumn Rocket Launcher(1.55) + KS Revolver Kit(0.18) + 4 keys

Total is 70 + 4 + 1.55 + 0.18 = 75.73 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130579834#!/compare/1515888000/1516320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026459591#!/compare/1515974400/1516147200

Sold for Frostbite Noir(55) + 3.17 keys in sweets

Total is 58.17 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016045615#!/compare/1516320000/1516492800

Sold for Scorching Thrist Blood(75)


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016045615#!/compare/1516492800/1516665600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1516579200/1516665600

Sold with Haunted Deep Cover(135) + Blizzardy Scotch Bonnet(12) + Stormy Engy Cap(16) for GE Warmer(260) + 3 keys

Total is 263 - (135 + 12 + 16) = 100 keys


taking 75 keys, calling 100 and 55 outliers.


================================================================================


Total is 75 + 28.8 + 4 = 107.8 keys


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Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114444973#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

Sold with 72 Relaxo + 2.89 keys in skins for IAMTE Pullover + Max Head(19.7)


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Relaxo Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210943957#!/compare/1517875200/1517961600

Sold for 14 keys + 19 ref.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994034714#!/compare/1517616000/1517702400

Sold for 11 pure.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198446795004#!/compare/1517270400/1517356800

Another sale @ 11 keys.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197965422107#!/compare/1516060800/1516147200

Sold for 14 keys pure.


Averaging sales @ (11 + 11 + 14 + 14.51)/4 = 12.6275

Using rounded price of 12.5 keys.

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Pullover Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030459813#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063054044#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

Sold for Duped Time Warp Drill Hat


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109898906#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036272372#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

Sold for 12 keys + Miami Phantom(36) + Mega Strike Zoomin'(30) + Scorching Brain-Warming(46)


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Zoomin Nano:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053915787#!/compare/1517702400/1517788800

Sold for 12 keys 5 ref


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125891906#!/compare/1517443200/1517616000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

Sold for planets Beret(10.5)


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134279540#!/compare/1515801600/1515888000

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Zoomin%27%20Broom

Sold for 15.96 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086255765#!/compare/1516752000/1516924800

Sold for 16 keys


Calling 10.5 as outlier, using average of 12 and 16 keys.

Using 14 keys.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Total is 12 + 36 + 14 + 46 = 108 keys.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304815912#!/compare/1516320000/1516492800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

Sold for Strange Shadows Private Eye(67) + Spec KS Degreaser(1.45) + 9 ref

Total is 68.69 keys.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301906429#!/compare/1514419200/1514505600

Sold for 71 pure.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252283568#!/compare/1517961600/1518393600

Sold for duped C9 Exclusive + Pro KS Aussie Grenade Launcher(22.9)

Killer Exclusive previously bought:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252283568#!/compare/1517702400/1517875200

Bought with Max Head(19.7) + TF Logo Killer Kabuto(29) + Blizzardy Cowl(17) + Pro KS Aussie Sticky Launcher(22.76) + Balloonihoodie(7.19) + 22 ref in sweets.

Total is 19.7 + 29 + 17 + 22.76 +7.19 + 0.6 = 96.25 keys

Using bp.tf price.(95)

Total is 117.9 keys.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127314754#!/compare/1517011200/1517097600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050745352#!/compare/1517011200/1517097600

Sold with Beams Snaggle(39) for Burning Cowl(150)

150 -39 = 111 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1516579200/1516665600

Sold for 83 keys.


Sales @ 68.69, 71, 83, 108, 111, 117.9

Rounding to 70 at the low end, 118 at the high end.

Pricing is 94 keys.

================================================================================


Total is (94 + 19.7) - (2.89 + 12.5) = 98.31 keys


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Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1517788800/1517875200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090520837#!/compare/1517788800/1517875200

Sold with Glory Counter for GE Dapper Topper


Counter Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a5ef43b44325a3981307416

Using Mini from suggestion to price @ 30 keys.


Dapper Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a6f9b93cf6c750eca70985a

My suggestion prices this at 94 keys. However, I'm working under the assumption that this sale is for the old price of 118 keys.


Total is 118 - 30 = 88 keys.

Not using, unless someone can tell me that it is usable.

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In Total:

109.1

107.8

98.31

88 (not using)


setting range from 98 to 109 keys.

Avatar ★ Scourge · posted

Suggestion will be high overall, with two clean sellers for 100, one 2 months old - hard to imagine that this is raising to over 100 considering: https://imgur.com/a/8c2Qc


There are a number of other errors here that lead to this being too high as well.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29493562 - First sale had a B/O of 100, which caps it there if the Crone is legitimately above 100


Crone mini @108 in sale #1 is high as well for that matter, as the second sale is also capped at 100: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29503397


Bomber mini @75 in sale #3 also high, current sellers (all clean): https://imgur.com/a/YjYz3 - 52, 54, 70, and 9 months at 80, so a flat 75 is unrealistic


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29526295 - B/O was 64 in the third sale in your Bomber mini as well


Regarding the rest of that mini, 100 should be thrown out from the get-go - that sale is entirely too bulky to be used to evaluate the Bomber, as the Bomber was only a small piece of the trade. With sales at 58, 64 (capped), and ~75, plus multiple sellers below the low end, it is much clearer that 75 flat doesn't work there.


C9 KE micro is definitely high as well - look at sellers there, again: https://imgur.com/a/A5H0t - Well below 95, mostly clean (and the one in your mini is duped, which naturally should sell below clean).


Burning Cowl meanwhile is 9 months outdated, with no micro provided, with the Beams Snaggle, Scorching Brain-Warming Wear, and Miami Phantom having the same problem. I realize that after a certain point it just gets to be too much, and it's clear from the rest of your suggestion (and others I've seen you submit) that you are putting in the effort to do as thorough minis as you can, but you shouldn't just take outdated prices for them, and you don't have to use every sale (you can choose to, but you don't have to given the amount of work that would usually require). I think using two sales that you can pull a solid value from is generally better than using 6 that rely on mostly outdated prices. To fix that mini, I would focus on the middle sales - keep 83 since that's full pure, still within 3 months, and nowhere near buyers, and find proper minis for the Wear/Phantom (although you could use one of the other newer sales as a fallback if those can't be mini'd for some reason), and make a smaller range with 83 to whatever the other sale comes out to. Unless you've chosen bad sales to use, that should generally be sufficient for mini-suggestions, with the most common exceptions being items with really unstable values (unusual taunts and new hats with poorly developed markets, just to name a couple examples).


SI KE mini @135 for the sale mentioned in the comments is also gonna be high: https://imgur.com/a/QU5yl - 110, 115, 120, 125, 130, all clean - I think that sale might just be better used on the KE. Multiple sales in the KE mini look as high as they are only because they too are drawing on outdated values - in reality most of them are lower than you've listed if valued based on more recent information.


I realize that a lot of the sellers that indicate your minis are too high weren't there yet when you posted this, but some of them definitely were. It's always something to keep an eye on.


Lastly, regarding the Dapper sale, you should absolutely be using the updated price when evaluating it - whichever price is based on sales that occurred closer to the trade you're trying to evaluate, which in this case is the in-date price at 88, is the sale you should use. It might still be on the low side here, but I wouldn't say that for certain until you've re-assessed the remainder of this suggestion.


I think the most important things that I would recommend you focus on moving forward are to check buyouts, to keep an eye on current sellers when valuing something - if your value conflicts with them, that's usually a red flag, and to do simpler/cleaner minis that only draw on up-to-date values or have all necessary sub-minis/micros provided. As for this suggestion itself, you should re-assess most of the minis involved with an eye for the current market, and I would definitely expect the final value to come out somewhat lower than currently suggested.

Avatar ★ Marty Birdman · posted

    Thank you for the information.

    I kinda had a feeling that using outdated prices for mini's would be a bad idea.

    Buyouts are still a thing that I don't understand how to fully apply to a suggestion, however this clarifies it a bit.


    I'll close this for now, and work on getting a better one up to date.

    Avatar ★ Scourge · posted