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Taunts... never again
SCM Sales
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1517702400/1517788800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025367258#!/compare/1517529600/1517875200
SCM Buy Order sale, https://i.imgur.com/JsGQdV0.png | https://gyazo.com/b6d48acfe15ab67f957ef8b806acb067
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204553488#!/compare/1517270400/1517788800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046479972#!/compare/1515888000/1516060800
SCM sale, can't determine | https://gyazo.com/97b74549a65f2e68f573bcf9a05a1043
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084605748#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046479972#!/compare/1515628800/1515715200
SCM sale, probably the $42.93, but can't be sure | https://gyazo.com/86dc6f1a07af23b7014725f936984e63
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339762409#!/compare/1513987200/1514073600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000790043#!/compare/1513987200/1514073600
SCM sale, around $50, he doesn't want to say | https://gyazo.com/b85effde26f5d386ca3260eb61a5c0f9 | https://gyazo.com/6e668dca183d9149348722d4cf351c99
---
Sale #1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067762518#!/compare/1516060800/1518220800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1517270400/1517443200
Possibly the 13 keys from a scrap auction? Excluding
---
Sale #2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1517097600/1517270400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352323719#!/compare/1516147200/1516233600
??? (can't be SCM as it was traded less than 7 days later)
---
Sale #3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996519748#!/compare/1518825600/1518912000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155476440#!/compare/1518825600/1518912000
16 Keys (took a few hours from my buy order)
---
Sale #4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074851877#!/compare/1518134400/1518912000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155476440#!/compare/1518739200/1518825600
+ (2) keys + (3.5) Head Prize = (22) Catastrophic Companions = 16.5 Keys (less than 1 day)
---
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011996311#!/compare/1515542400/1515801600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600
1:1 w/Purple Energy Puffy Polar Cap (Use on Cap)
---
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990574105#!/compare/1510617600/1516752000
???
---
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149668131#!/compare/1516924800/1517011200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061667387#!/compare/1516492800/1517184000
1:1 Fountain of Delight Taunt: The Dueling Banjo (Use on FoD)
---
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061667387#!/compare/1515196800/1515283200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1515283200/1515369600
1:1 Showstopper Taunt: Square Dance = 64 Keys (Square Dance is in date, but could probably use an update)
---
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079775025#!/compare/1515369600/1518825600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039873059#!/compare/1516406400/1518739200
???
---
Sale #10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025083656#!/compare/1514937600/1515024000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1514937600/1515024000
45 Keys (had to look at all the key histories on shadow's side) | https://gyazo.com/bc2db28bb811fec7e297aa83fd48441b
---
Sale #11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198430656785#!/compare/1514332800/1514505600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1514246400/1514332800
16 Keys? Excluding (This was traded by the person that bought it for $75 on marketplace, 16 keys doesn't make sense)
---
Sale #12
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114604882#!/compare/1517702400/1518048000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996581311#!/compare/1517875200/1517961600
(19) Keys + (9.75) Strange Construction PDA + (9.5) Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Huntsman = 38.25 Keys
B/O = 40 (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29452005)
---
Sale #13
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281759583#!/compare/1515628800/1515801600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166581172#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600
28 Keys (Took 1 day)
---
Marketplace.tf Sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/30842;5;u3006
$75/ 1.95 = 38 Keys (https://backpack.tf/item/6256153232)
$87/1.95 = 44 Keys (https://backpack.tf/item/6253100964 | http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29476700)
---------------
Sales @ ~20, 16, 16.5, 64, 45, 38.25, 28, 38, 44
Dropping: 16, 16.5, ~20, 28, 64
Rounding: 38.25 -> 38
Sales all over (typical for a new taunt); 28 and below trades took no more than 1 day each, highest was for over priced taunt. Range from cash and key sales with key/item and cash trades to support.
Current Listing:
https://gyazo.com/6635375c2910a34e7fe7859e1c00a23a
https://gyazo.com/9abe0b6aa343ef8fd78cd87db04e6cf2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29549391
This looks way too high to me.
SCM sellers heavily counter your price--7 days later you still have 3 SCM listings for $60-$62 (2 of them are the same sellers, 3rd is either different seller or changed profile pic, and there was one Banjo sale for $60.63, I assume it was this, though I can't tell what effect for sure). I don't know how long those had already been listed when you opened this suggestion, but it's been an additional week and 2/3 are still there.
Bottom line: 3 have been available on the SCM for ~25 keys for at least a week (with maybe another sale at that price), meaning sellers are willing to accept ~21-22 keys after tax. If they're available for 25 keys and they aren't moving quickly, I don't think 45 or even 38 is remotely accurate.
Also, your cash sales are now both over two months old. In a situation like this where it appears the item is dropping in value over time, I'd weigh those less heavily (or even ignore them), as they don't support current sellers' prices at all.
Problem here is that there are too many lower sales being ignored. Current/past sellers have been way lower than the suggested range:
https://imgur.com/a/YtUE8 ----- screenshot from Feb 20th
https://imgur.com/a/2ahP7 ----- Listings on SCM under 30 keys right now.
I would certainly wait for more sales before pricing this.
When I submitted it was within reason to ignore the lower sales, but that was (nearly) 2 months ago and as I no longer have premium I am unable to see all that has happen since. Oh well.