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Credit to king for the free suggestion
I traded my Dead Presidents Trucker's Topper with https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081761490 today for 20 keys pure.
https://i.gyazo.com/46a9f666c29b83ffc71a11530caaae3b.png
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"https://marketplace.tf/items/30930;5;u60 ----- Sales at ~12 and ~18 keys
Smoking Fuka (open suggestion at 10, might need a fix)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009551777#!/compare/1514332800/1514505600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159787257#!/compare/1514419200/1514505600
Bulk for C9 BOA
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081761490#!/compare/1515024000/1515110400
No idea
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066940150#!/compare/1514851200/1515369600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1514937600/1515196800
Looks like it sold for a KaW Whoopee, which was then quicksold for 15 keys. Sellers at 17, so won't be more than that.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1514937600/1515196800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040685120#!/compare/1514851200/1515196800
No idea
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045611871#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012637194#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198437573808#!/compare/1516320000/1516406400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1516320000/1516406400
Heart Billycock (~23)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152328601#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152328601#!/compare/1516579200/1516838400
Steaming Big Chief (outdated at 13) + 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069559160#!/compare/1516665600/1516838400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080556880#!/compare/1516752000/1516838400
Pro. Ks. Unusual SMG (outdated at 14, mini at 12)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198444959375#!/compare/1517097600/1517184000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080556880#!/compare/1517011200/1517184000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090036406#!/compare/1516924800/1517443200 ----- SMG was bought for ~12 keys
Quicksold for 9 keys apparently
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165677507#!/compare/1517184000/1517270400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097049599#!/compare/1517184000/1517270400
Sellers at 15 (young), 19, 20 (young), 27.
https://imgur.com/a/5Rbe2
So in summary there are sales at: 9 (qs), 10 (?), 12 (mp.tf), 12, 15+, 18 (mp.tf), 20 (pure), ~22, 23. Sellers at 15 (young), 19, 20 (young), 27.
I'm afraid we will have to go with a wide range here. 12-20 makes sense, with pure sales in both ends, leaving out two low and two high sales. Feel free to resuggest at that."
My response to that suggestion was almost a month ago, and other sales have happened since.
10 keys pure (buy order, I assume) and now relisted at 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143741471#!/compare/1519344000/1519516800
DP Prospector (outdated at 13) + 3 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155591052#!/compare/1518825600/1518912000
14 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045611871#!/compare/1517788800/1518048000
Not so sure about the wide range, but I guess we could leave this open for a bit to see if it's fine.
3 sales at 12 and seller there so 12 is definitely the low end.
2 sales at 14 and ~16 (probably lower) which would support 15 staying.
Just based on what's laid out here I'd probably recommend 12-15 or somethin around that.
18 key marketplace sale MAY just be high and I honestly believe 20 pure was just luck, not to mention looking at the sellers then and now I don't think 20 should be included at all.
Well, we can't just ignore that many sales above 15. Turns out one of them is untradable right now and didn't show up on premium at first. Other sales:
15 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165677507#!/compare/1518048000/1518134400
Stormy Front Runner (mini at ~17)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159410018#!/compare/1518307200/1518393600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257676191#!/compare/1518307200/1518393600
Front Runner sold for ~17 keys here
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257676191#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000
Sold for 9 keys (to a buy order I guess?)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257676191#!/compare/1518480000/1518566400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1518480000/1518566400
Resold for ~10 to a buy order
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1518566400/1518652800
Summary: 9 (qs), 9 (qs), 10 (qs), 10 (qs), 11, 12 (mp.tf), 12, 14 (pure), ~15, 15 (pure), <16, 17, 18 (mp.tf), 20 (pure), ~22, 23. Seller at 12 in classies apparently declined 11 keys already
https://imgur.com/a/iZTX2
So yeah, sales all over the place.
The seller at 12 ended up selling for 11 after almost a month:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1521417600/1521504000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071667744#!/compare/1521417600/1521504000
Other sales: SCM
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047003768#!/compare/1520121600/1520294400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315588518#!/compare/1519948800/1520035200
Apparently sold for a Searing Puffy Cap, which then resold for the TF Logo Snaggle + sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071667744#!/compare/1521676800/1521763200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1521676800/1521763200
https://imgur.com/a/90O0U ----- B/O was ~14
No idea
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1521849600/1521936000
I believe this should be 11-15 now, with pure sales in both ends. Makes no sense to include higher sales when it has been on the market many times for less than 15, and took that long to sell for 11.