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~$0.03
Unique Refined Metal
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I like Metal

Hopefully a refined suggestion


I updated Keys recently at 32.5 refined (32.5 comes from the mid-point of 32.33 - 32.66) https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a9ae84644325a278a0962d9


Recent Mp.tf sales for Keys (Since Keys were updated) - https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key


$1.77 - 1

$1.85 - 28

$1.86 - 42

$1.87 - 113

$1.88 - 44

$1.89 - 17

$1.90 - 1232

$1.91 - 200

$1.92 - 160

$1.93 - 164

$1.94 - 166

$1.95 - 1084

$1.96 - 2211

$1.97 - 6091

$1.98 - 7852

$1.99 - 1812

$2.00 - 225


Calling lower sales too low as only a handful sold for those prices


Also excluding $2 to make the range even and again only a small amount sold


Now I'm going to take off 10% for mp.tf taxes as people pay for the security the site has and we get the following


$1.90 - 1232 --> ($1.71)

$1.91 - 200 --> ($1.719)

$1.92 - 160 --> ($1.728)

$1.93 - 164 --> ($1.737)

$1.94 - 166 --> ($1.746)

$1.95 - 1084 --> ($1.755)

$1.96 - 2211 --> ($1.764)

$1.97 - 6091 --> ($1.773)

$1.98 - 7852 --> ($1.782)

$1.99 - 1812 --> ($1.791)


Now we look for Paypal traders who Buy/Sell Keys

$1.70 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26078623 - https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197987815569 (Bought 0)

$1.75 - https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66141-buying-keys-for-175-via-paypalbuying-unusuals-read-desc/ - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102964652 (Bought 10)

$1.77 - https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66108-buying-keys-177/ - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032763715 (Bought 100)

$1.80 - https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66135-buying-tf2-keys-for-18-paypal/ - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047978230 (Bought 47)

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66096-selling-keys-18/ - https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198168863803 (Sold 10)

$1.83 - https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/58098-selling-tf2-keys-183-each-paypalwmbtc/ - https://backpack.tf/u/76561197999121454 (Hasn't sold any since Keys updated)

$1.89 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26078623 - https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197987815569 (Sold 6)

$1.90 - https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/65875-keys-for-190-usd-paypal/ - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136469690 (Sold 4)


Excluding these as not many were purchased/sold compared to Mp.tf, the Max was 100 sold at $1.77 which fits the range of Mp.tf sales anyway


Now we divide these prices by Key price (32.5) and we get; (took to 3 decimal places)


$1.71 / 32.5 = 0.053

$1.719 / 32.5 = 0.053

$1.728 / 32.5 = 0.053

$1.737 / 32.5 = 0.053

$1.746 / 32.5 = 0.054

$1.755 / 32.5 = 0.054

$1.764 / 32.5 = 0.054

$1.773 / 32.5 = 0.055

$1.782 / 32.5 = 0.055

$1.791 / 32.5 = 0.055


0.055 round to 0.06 and 0.053 rounds to 0.05 hence the range of 0.05 - 0.06


Thanks =)

For ref prices to drop even more the value of a key need to go up way more to even out the value of a key being sold from the mannco store.

    Prices aren't based off the mann. co store.

    Proof seems genuine but I think you missed out another source which is community market, think you could calculate without taxes?

      Last suggestion didn't use SCM as a proof source and the guide doesn't say anything either. I will ask mods though as it's a fair point.

        You can’t sell metal on the Steam Community Market, and, as far as I know, you can’t use key sales to price Refined Metal.


        Also, Valve’s SCM fees are included, not excluded.