Green Confetti Swagman's Swatter

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113318184#!/compare/1519862400/1519948800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046936380#!/compare/1519689600/1519862400

Sold with 3 keys + 14 ref (half a key at the time) for Terror-Watt Scout Shako (outdated at 23, mini at 20) = 20 - 3.5 = 16.5, rounding to 17 keys

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253350341#!/compare/1519776000/1519862400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113318184#!/compare/1496016000/1519862400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29572381

Sold with 4 keys + 8.33 ref for a Kill-a-Watt Wraith Wrap (outdated at 27.5, mini at 23) = 23 - 4 = 19 keys

Refined metal value is irrevelant as it would round up anyway.

-- KILL-A-WATT WRAITH WRAP --

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1520294400/1520380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380831168#!/compare/1520294400/1520380800

Sold for Planets Stout Shako (outdated at 11.5) + 1 key + 11.5+ keys sweets

This is definitely not usable, there's a Festive Flare Gun Collector's Set in the sweets, and that could be worth anything to the right person. Also I have no idea what that flame thrower is worth.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047609644#!/compare/1520035200/1520121600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1520035200/1520121600

Sold in a bulk deal for Roboactive Swagman's Swatter

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253350341#!/compare/1519862400/1519948800

(untracable from buyer's side)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29573745

I don't know what's going on here. Some sort of pure sale, involves a duped Beams Stuntman.

(untracable from seller's side)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1519776000/1519862400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29571367

Can't trace this, sadly. The pure in the history is from a CV Sack sale.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163191051#!/compare/1519603200/1519689600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1519603200/1519689600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29569219 - B/O ~20.5, wasn't up for long though

Sold for Searing Counterfeit Billycock (outdated at 23)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362424197#!/compare/1517616000/1517702400 (no evidence of a trade from seller's end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

Sold with a key for a duped Stormy Killer's Kabuto (25.5) + S. Festivized Rocket Launcher = 25.5 - 1 = 24.5, rounding to 25 keys.

Launcher value is irrelevant here because I'm rounding up and it's being added onto the final total.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362424197#!/compare/1517529600/1517616000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29540411

Sold for duped GE Bloke's Bucket Hat (outdated at 27)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082038296#!/compare/1517184000/1517270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1517184000/1517270400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29533356

Sold for Fountain of Delight Didgeridrongo (unpriced)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1516233600/1516320000

(untracable from buyer's side)

Sold for 20 keys + 9 refined

Sellers: https://gyazo.com/132ca61cb433204aaaa5f287d451ca6f

1x 20 (young)

1x 21 (1 month)

1x 27.5

1x 28

There's multiple pieces of evidence showing the wraith is worth ~20 and ~25-27. I'm not confident on using this in a full suggestion, this needs more digging into, but taking 20-26 and using 23 as a mid value seems fair for an estimate. There are too many higher sales that you can't just say it won't sell at 21 at all.

-- TERROR-WATT SCOUT SHAKO --

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125706211#!/compare/1519516800/1519603200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046936380#!/compare/1519516800/1519603200

Sold with 4.5 keys of sweets for Purple Confetti L'homme Burglerre (outdated at 27.5)

Looking at the stability of the sweets values, it looks like both parties valued both sides of the trade equal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1519430400/1519516800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125706211#!/compare/1519344000/1519516800

Sold for Cloud 9 Hive Minder (outdated at 17) + 1 key + 7 ref + 1.2 keys of sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140213386#!/compare/1518307200/1518393600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1518307200/1518393600

Sold for Stormy Storm Whoopee Cap (outdated at 14) + 5 keys

Sellers: https://gyazo.com/8e4dc0ff4aa8fa2922a5acefc915417d

1x 20 (7 days)

1x 21 (1 month)

23 looks like an outlier due to the sellers. Doesn't look like it can get above 21 - I'll take a rough estimate of 19-21 here

-- OTHER SALES --

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047609644#!/compare/1519689600/1519776000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253350341#!/compare/1519689600/1519776000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29563328

Sold with duped Beams Stuntman for pure?

The history on the Stuntman is awful so I'd hate to look into it, but 50 pure keys show as removed from the buyer's bp. The seller was selling the Stuntman with a B/O of 33 and the Swagman had a B/O of 20; it seems plausible that both parties valued the Swagman at 17 for this trade and the Stuntman at 33, making it 50 keys for both. This is just supprtive evidence for a value of 17.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057290014#!/compare/1518912000/1519084800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047609644#!/compare/1518998400/1519084800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29530591

Quicksold for 13 keys + 9 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414215936#!/compare/1516492800/1516579200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057290014#!/compare/1516579200/1516752000

Sold for 10 keys + 39.22 ref (keys were 36.77) + 215.77 ref in sweets (153.22 without bill's, counting the bill's as 1.7 keys = 62.55 ref extra)

Refined = 1.07 keys

Sweets = 5.87 keys

Total = 16.94 keys, rounding to 17.

There's a BoA and a Shred Alert also received on the same day, and it looks like some items were used to pay for that - unsure which, though. If you subtract their value the sale should come out ~16. I'm still hesitant to use it because the sweets values are pretty rough - I didn't account for what they were worth two months ago, I don't know how much the BoA and Shred Alert were bought for, I didn't account for item modifiers... there's too many question marks on this, and going any further would be a waste of time here.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062223468#!/compare/1516147200/1516233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191544534#!/compare/1516147200/1516233600

Looks like a SCM sale

--

Sellers: https://gyazo.com/e347745b1832d762f1ad6c8342ee5875

1x 19 (10 days)

1x 20

1x 26

Sales at 17, 19, with a supporting sale at most likely 17, and a possibly lower sale.

You can re-interpret a lot of different parts of this situation, but I think the main issue is the Wraith, as the Shako sale at 17 is well-supported - the Wraith was only two weeks outdated at the time of the sale, and it was originally worth 27. It's dropped suddenly since, but I don't believe it should be valued at or below 21 for this suggestion because it can't sell at 21 now, that seller popped up after the sale. However, I only spotted the seller at 19 after making this suggestion, so I guess all that wraith business doesn't matter now anyway... Taking a flat value of 17.

The main reason I haven't done most of these minis is due to the fact that I don't have premium, and as you can see, I've always run into outdated hats, which is frustrating. Feel free to use these sales for full suggestions, I don't really have any intention to do so.

Picked up premium recently, gonna clean this up because I was pretty exhausted at the end of all this and made a couple of errors.