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Haunted Phantasm Jr. A Rather Festive Tree
New price: 100 keys
[proof below]
SALE #1 = 100 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1519689600/1519776000
https://i.imgur.com/HgAzgKR.png - B/O 100 keys
Sold for a Burning Flames A Rather Festive Tree (98) + Australium Ambassador + Strange Pan (10). Should easily cap at the B/O.
SALE #2 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993987295#!/compare/1517097600/1517184000
https://backpack.tf/item/3122863626
Sold within a day for 60 keys. Looks like it quicksold.
SALE #3 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111049983#!/compare/1517097600/1517184000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993987295#!/compare/1517097600/1517184000
Sold along a Cloud 9 Respectless Rubber Glove for a Kill-a-Watt Brotherhood of Arms. This sale would likely end up at roughly 45-50 keys, which is countered by current quickbuyers on the tree.
SALE #4 = not using
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1520899200/1521072000
Got mine for a Roboactive Crocleather Slouch and the seller added a Stormy Storm Master’s Yellow Belt. I’d rather use this on the Slouch. Not to mention it’d turn out very low here as well. Seems like the buyer of the Slouch won’t be reselling it either.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993363628#!/compare/1517184000/1517443200
Slouch sold here for a Blizzardy Storm Brown Bomber (Sellers at roughly 56-58), meaning that the Tree would be around 36-38 if we value the Belt at quickbuyer value. Which is countered by quickbuyers on the Tree.
SUMMARY
Sales: 100 keys
Sellers: 120 keys
https://gyazo.com/34a8840becef4b0bb18b10382653f802
Sale at 100 keys. The other 3 days are either bulky, way too low or quicksold. Going with 100 keys.
100 flat feels high. I remember having trouble fetching over my B/O for a while(80)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1513468800/1513555200
sold it for this. might cap 80 keys? sale is 90 days old.
Well the sale goes outdated in a day so I think it's best to exclude it. The 100 key sale however, occurred only 3 weeks ago, which is probably more accurate for the hat.
Though, if anybody else feels like including 80 keys is necessary, then I'm open for a resuggestion.
So you have 3 sales UNDER the current value, but only the one that's OVER the current price counts because politex has one buy order out. How strange.
I'm going with 100 flat for multiple reasons.
1) The sales are:
35 keys -> excluding because countered by multiple quick buyers above 35 keys. Sale is probably also better used on the Crocleather Slouch, as it's far outdated as well.
~45-50 keys -> excluding because countered by a quick buyer at 47 keys, which indicates that a sale at roughly 45-50 keys is too low.
60 keys -> excluding because it sold within a day, which shows that 60 keys is clearly not what this hat is worth if it's capable of selling for that value within less than a day.
100 keys -> valid sale (part of credits to Jarool), sold for roughly 110-120 keys in items, which caps at the 100 key B/O, thus forming a valid sale at 100 keys.
Therefore 100 keys. This'll likely stay open for a while as well for future sales, to check if ~100 flat is indeed the correct price tag to apply to this hat. Which, looking at the current sales/sellers/etc, is accurate.
3 sales below just shows that most of the past owners clearly didn't value it anywhere near 100, just saying :p
Only the 100 sale is valid, therefore 100 flat. The most those lower sales will probably do is make this be up for a month.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ac324c244325a53b15a4103
The Burning Flames A Rather Festive Tree just got updated to 90 keys. However, it shouldn't really change anything regarding the suggested range. Since it'll still get B/O capped quite easily.
There are two problems here: a) there are three much lower sales being ignored, and b) the guy who paid 100+ (sale 1) resold for way lower (sale 4). Both sales look like outliers, in which case this should be left outdated.