Re-suggestion. Thanks to Marty for the info!

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Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405223769#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106233311#!/compare/1516406400/1516492800

Bulk.

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Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106233311#!/compare/1517961600/1518048000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109830172#!/compare/1517961600/1518048000

Sold for Spec KS Festivized Aussie Black Box(15.43) + ST Burstchester + Strange Neutron Star Bot Dogger(29)

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Burstchester Mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30621;5;u3006

3 sales @ 24.8, 23.6 & 21.8 keys (keys @ 1.97)

Listings for non-strange @ 29 - 30 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198423051068#!/compare/1517011200/1517097600

Sold for Infernal Carlton(18) + 3 keys

Total is 21 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048008254#!/compare/1515542400/1515628800

Sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4549671570 <-- traced by looking at history of item and comparing to keys)

Taking average of 2 sales of 18.5 keys

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Total is 18.5 + 15.43 + 29 = 62.93

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Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088277076#!/compare/1520121600/1520208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1520121600/1520208000

Sold for D@D Caribbean Conqueror (59)

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Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385656721#!/compare/1520121600/1520208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088277076#!/compare/1520121600/1520208000

Sold for 4 keys + Steaming Stalhelm + Smoking Pipe(16.5) + Slumber Conquistador

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Stalhelm Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5aa4446bcf6c75238f7222f5

Suggestion at 13.5 keys

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Conq Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5aa473c944325a4a5c549df3

Suggestion for 16 keys

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Total is 16.5 + 16 + 13.5 + 4 = 50 keys

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Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085269574#!/compare/1517961600/1518048000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122083141#!/compare/1517875200/1518048000

Sold for DBD Pile of Scrap + 12 keys + 14.75 ref in sweets

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Scrap Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065152705#!/compare/1515888000/1515974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142557909#!/compare/1515888000/1515974400

Sold for C9 Trucker Topper + 12 keys (Trucker sold for Strange unusual Burstchester)

C9 Trucker sold for Strange Unusual Burstchester, worth 18.5 keys.

Using 18.5 keys for sake of suggestion.

Total is 18.5 + 12 = 30.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271428863#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065152705#!/compare/1515715200/1515801600

Sold for GE Grenadier's Cap(40) + 3 keys

Total is 43 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327814098#!/compare/1520294400/1520553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073553007#!/compare/1520467200/1520553600

Sold for 34 keys pure (30 keys were used to buy Steaming Rack)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1520467200/1520553600 <-- Rack sale

Using 43 keys, other sales are QS.

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Total is 43 + 12 + 0.46 = 60.46 keys

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Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079291517#!/compare/1517788800/1517875200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1517011200/1517875200

Bulk.

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Total sales are:

50, 59, 60.46, 62.93

Calling 50 keys an outlier, going with 60 flat.

Birdman's Info:

Your math on sale #5 is wrong, comes out closer to 55 - mature seller at 41 below your mini as well.

Conqueror sale can't be valued exactly without a mini. Has a seller at 53. Maybe this sale would be better used on the Conqueror.

Also, need to add in the 60 key B/O that caps sale #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29539500

Furthermore, was on the market for months at 55 before selling here:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073553007#!/compare/1516924800/1517011200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29455680

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29416177

^Not a sale that I recommend you use given the problematic valuation of the Birdcage and that there are newer sales to work with, but it gives me reason to believe that your suggested value is high overall. With recorded sales at ~51, ~55, and 60, plus the Conquror sale likely somewhere between 50 and 60 & the long term seller at 55 for the past few months that sold for the Birdcage and keys, I'm not seeing 50 as an outlier here. I would go with 50-60.