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Ether Trail Prehistoric Pullover Mini
Sale #1
Sale Untraceable.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071784776#!/compare/1518480000/1518652800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081450612#!/compare/1517270400/1518652800
{Excluding}
Sale #2
Sold for a Flaming Lantern Industrial Festivizer, Smoking Virus Doctor, Power Surge Bubble Pipe, Isotope Festivized Specialized Killstreak Cardboard Boxed Rocket Launcher (Battle Scarred), and ~20 keys in sweets.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077746093#!/compare/1518393600/1518480000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157207366#!/compare/1518393600/1518480000
Taking 120k
Sale #3
Sold for $224.99 / $1.98 on marketplace.tf
https://backpack.tf/item/6254652499
https://marketplace.tf/items/30704;5;u103
http://manicbot.me/keyprice.txt
Taking 114k
Sale #4
Sold for $204.99 / $1.95 on marketplace.tf
https://backpack.tf/item/5577753910
https://marketplace.tf/items/30704;5;u103
http://manicbot.me/keyprice.txt
Taking 105k
Sale #5
Sold for a Disco Beat Down Patriot Peak along with 10 keys. {Better for Peak}
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107090195#!/compare/1522454400/1522627200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050062763#!/compare/1522540800/1522627200
{Excluding}
Sale #6
Sold for a Hellfire Counterfeit Billycock, Scorching Flames Hetman's Headpiece, and ~29 keys in sweets.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112279227#!/compare/1519862400/1519948800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256865969#!/compare/1519862400/1519948800
Taking 116k
Sale #7
Bulk for a Burning Flames Rotation Sensation.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1521244800/1521331200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087708756#!/compare/1521158400/1521331200
{Excluding}
Sale #8
Sold for 49 keys. 95 keys grouped together but only 46 match by ID {?} {Low}
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123163113#!/compare/1517961600/1518307200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1518220800/1518307200
{Excluding}
Sale #9
Sold for Frostbite Spook Specs along with a DUPED Max's Severed Head. {Better for Specs}
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1519948800/1520035200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040630480#!/compare/1520035200/1520208000
{Excluding}
Isotope Festivized Specialized Killstreak Cardboard Boxed Rocket Launcher (Battle Scarred) Mini
Sale #1
Sold for 25 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077746093#!/compare/1522281600/1522454400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043971132#!/compare/1522454400/1522713600
Taking 25k
Final Price: 105k-120k
Sale #8 is definitely not 49 keys. All 95 keys match by names and ID#s. Whatever is indicating to you that only 49 keys match there, it is misleading you. Also worth noting that the buyer offers more than 95 keys on the Outpost ad: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29550629
With the amount in the above sale somewhat unclear given the discrepancy between their offer and what compare shows, and the sale now over 3 months old anyway, I'd sooner call it general support for the drop than try to adjust the range with it here.
New sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154939361#!/compare/1525392000/1525737600 - Bonzo Tin Topi, unpriced, should be used there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077260471#!/compare/1523577600/1524528000 - Looks like 75?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116427955#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000 - Other side is more cluttered - either countered by buyers or untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820315117#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600 - Better used on the Boxcar? Other recent sales for it are pretty low
Multiple young sellers within your range, mature seller for 125. This should be fine.