Using last month

Sale 1:

Sold for like ~8 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120925320#!/compare/1523664000/1523750400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211533487#!/compare/1523664000/1523836800

X = 8

Sales 2 & 3:

Sold for $12.99 and $12.89 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/1109;5;u3008

https://backpack.tf/item/6175831864

Can’t find the other item’s history

12.99/1.96 = ~6.63 keys

12.89/1.97 = ~6.54 keys

https://i.imgur.com/qXaelPM.png - B/O of 6 on one of the sales

X = 6.5

X = 6 (Capped by B/O)

Sales 4 & 5:

Two more bot.tf sales at ~5.5 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/XbEUOj4.png

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308819102#!/compare/1521936000/1522022400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199425379#!/compare/1522022400/1522627200

Might be one of the sales

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308819102#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968421642#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200

Might be the other

X = 5.5 (2x)

Sale 6:

Sold for 5 keys + 20 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308819102#!/compare/1522886400/1522972800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214675215#!/compare/1522627200/1522972800

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/XbEUOj4.png

X = 5.5

Sale 7:

Sold for 5 keys + 20 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357046243#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347361747#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/XbEUOj4.png

X = 5.5

Sale 8:

Sold for Head Prize (4)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386563089#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322859332#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

X = 4

Sale 9:

Sold for ~5 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347361747#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386563089#!/compare/1522281600/1522454400

The items are kinda icky, so I won’t use the sale to get an exact value here, but rather use it as support.

Sale 10:

Sold with item for Screaming Tiger Scotsman’s Stagger + item

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045727596#!/compare/1523318400/1523923200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057999536#!/compare/1523664000/1523836800

Gonna pretend this sale doesn’t exist.

Sellers:

~5.73 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/pWhy2un.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6577065217

6 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/IlBDPWb.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6404506357

https://i.imgur.com/PEWkZMp.png

https://backpack.tf/item/4929867612

https://i.imgur.com/4Poxr2g.png

https://backpack.tf/item/4929867612

Sales at:

4

5.5 (4x)

6

6.5

8

https://i.imgur.com/T8drDcE.png - Buyers at 4+ keys, excluding 4.

8 is an outlier, excluding 8.

Gonna exclude 6.5, given the large amount of sellers at 6 keys.

Going with 5.5-6.